Asia Economics Weekly Thai inflation below target, tourism rebound continues Inflation in Thailand fell back sharply last month and is now below the central bank’s target, further supporting our view that the BoT’s tightening cycle is now over. Tourism across Asia has... 9th June 2023 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI stands pat, MSP hikes, India-US defence ties The RBI didn’t throw up any surprises this week when it kept the repo rate on hold at 6.50% and maintained a hawkish tone. But recent developments related to minimum support prices and monsoon rains... 9th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shrinking output gap points to slower growth Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.7% q/q from 0.4% but we don’t think this strong performance will be sustained. One reason is that the output gap has narrowed significantly and points to a slowdown... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy braces for more pain The RBA's hawkish turn has led us to revise up our forecast for the peak cash rate to 4.85%, from 4.35% previously. The resulting rise in mortgage rates means that housing affordability will soon... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 87-month low. Consumer price inflation edged up but remained depressed. Core inflation slipped slightly, suggesting that the immediate... 9th June 2023 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Won weakness likely to continue this year Dismal economic growth has established the Korean won as one of the worst-performing emerging market (EM) currencies against the dollar this year. We expect Korea’s bleak growth prospects and... 8th June 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Next move in policy rates likely to be down The RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate on hold (at 6.50%) today comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation. The central bank continues to strike a hawkish tone and the door... 8th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2023) The narrowing of the trade surplus in April was driven in large part by a deterioration in the terms of trade. We think net exports will actually provide a modest boost to GDP growth this quarter. 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus The electric vehicle threat to Japan’s car industry Japan’s carmakers face an existential threat from the emergence of cheap EV exports from China. Even in a benign scenario where carmakers eventually jump on the EV bandwagon, we suspect that they... 8th June 2023 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Apr. 2023) 8th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Is the Chinese economic recovery already over? 1686816000 The market optimism which greeted the end of zero-COVID restrictions has quickly given way to gloom after a string of disappointing data releases.
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Cash rate of 4.85% will push economy into recession In response to the hawkish shift by RBA Governor Lowe and the further acceleration in unit labour cost growth, we now expect the Bank to lift the cash rate to 4.85% by September. That aggressive... 7th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1 23) Real GDP growth slowed sharply last quarter as household spending ground to a standstill. However, with productivity falling for a fourth consecutive quarter, unit labour costs grew apace... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (May) China’s exports contracted year-on-year in May for the first time in three months, with export volumes falling below their levels at the start of the year. And with the worst yet to come for many... 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
