Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Market (Oct. 2024) & Tokyo CPI (Nov. 2024) The Tokyo CPI suggests that inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose further above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in November, supporting our long-held view that the Bank will hike rates in... 28th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further interest rate cuts likely next year in Korea The Bank of Korea cut interest rates again today by a further 25bps (to 3.00%) and made clear in its statement that more easing is on the way. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will... 28th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Why is the RBNZ slashing rates but the RBA is not? While the RBNZ started hiking rates earlier during the recent tightening cycle than the RBA, it also lifted rates to a higher peak. The RBA tempered the degree of tightening in order to preserve the... 28th November 2024 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: New model points to weaker growth in China We’re launching an updated version of our China Activity Proxy this month, alongside an interactive dashboard that gives clients access to the data. Our expanded model suggests that China’s growth so... 27th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2024) EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a... 27th November 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily RBNZ rate cuts could still sink the Kiwi dollar We expect the New Zealand dollar to fall against the US and Australian dollars over the next year or so, and fare worse than most – if not all – other G10 currencies. 27th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (November 2024) The RBNZ didn’t provide a clear signal about the speed of future rate cuts when it lowered the overnight cash rates by 50bp today, but we think it will deliver another 50bp cut at its February meeting 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Oct. 24) The stagnation in headline inflation in October belies a renewed uptick in trimmed mean inflation and we’re sticking to our forecast that the RBA won’t cut interest rates before Q2 next year 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the... 26th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Equities Focus Is a bubble in India’s stock market deflating? India’s stock market has had such a good few years that it started to raise concerns about whether it was in a “bubble”. And as it’s come under pressure recently, some have speculated that the bubble... 26th November 2024 · 13 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about tariffs In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal... 25th November 2024 · 21 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (November 2024) The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy is going through a soft patch. But given the strength of the recent inflation data, we now expect the RBI to keep rates on... 25th November 2024 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Tariffs & re-routing commodity trade; natural gas soars The election victory of Donald Trump and the prospect of renewed trade restrictions has naturally sharpened attention on the potential impact of tariffs on trade flows, including on commodity trade... 22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Korea spring a surprise? The Bank of Korea pushed back strongly against the prospect of back-to-back rate cuts when it began its easing cycle last month, and most analysts expect rates to be left unchanged at the BoK’s... 22nd November 2024 · 6 mins read
