Nordic & Swiss Economics Iceland’s shorter working week not a holy grail The success of reduced working hour trials in Iceland was largely founded on adopting better working practices which, if embraced elsewhere, might offer no-cost ways of achieving better work-life... 30th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly KOF coming back earth; Sweden powering ahead The latest fall in the KOF Economic Barometer suggests that the tailwinds that have driven the rebound in the Swiss industrial sector are fading. But with the hospitality sector going from strength to... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden GDP Indicator (Q2) & ETI (Jul.) The 0.9% q/q increase in Swedish GDP in Q2 was a touch weaker than our forecast (+1.0%) but stronger than the consensus (+0.7%). While the best of the rebound in the industrial sector may be behind us... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property A primer on European residential property Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of... 27th July 2021 · 17 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Summer Olympics not N&S’s comparative advantage Switzerland and the Nordic countries don’t tend to excel in the summer Olympics but they dominate the winter games when their comparative advantage of lots of snow and mountains becomes apparent. Next... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Post-pandemic recovery phase drawing to a close As elsewhere in mainland Europe, activity in Switzerland and the Nordic economies rebounded in Q2 as services sectors re-opened and the strength of global trade has buoyed exports. Our GDP forecasts... 22nd July 2021 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics SNB not following ECB; Sweden bucks inflation trend The SNB confirmed this week that it wouldn’t be following the ECB in raising its inflation target, but that doesn’t change the big picture that it looks set to leave interest rates on hold for a very... 16th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (June) The further fall in Swedish headline inflation in June is at odds with the recent data from the US and the UK, but came as no surprise given the recent drop in electricity prices. And with non-energy... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics ECB move shifts goalposts for SNB; Löfven’s back! The ECB’s new monetary policy strategy means that the SNB is even less likely to be in a position to start raising rates in 2023, which is what investors currently expect. And it reinforces our view... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor High valuations may hold back risky assets While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years. 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (June) The small increase in headline CPI inflation and small decrease in the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation will make no difference to the immediate outlook for monetary policy, not least because... 9th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Löfven exits the stage (not pursued by a bear) The resignation of Prime Minister Stefan Löfven in Sweden has added to the period of political uncertainty in Sweden. That said, the other leading political actors would probably struggle to pass... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Balance sheet reduction to precede hikes in Sweden The Riksbank was always likely to maintain the status quo this morning, but against the backdrop of recent hawkish shifts by other central banks, notably the Fed, the focus was on how its thinking had... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to start to shrink its balance sheet next year After last week’s hawkish shift by the Fed, and the erasure of any doubt about the start of hikes by the Norges Bank, the Riksbank may also pencil a rate hike into its projections next Thursday (1st... 24th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK carnage; Danish rate hike! The Norwegian krone has endured an extraordinary week and will be vulnerable to further falls until market sentiment improves. Nonetheless, if our forecast for oil prices to start to rise later this... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Taking stock of the policy responses so far Following the raft of policy measures by Nordic central banks this week, the focus next week will be on what the SNB has up its sleeve. We have pencilled in a cut in the policy rate, to -1.00%. Other... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
