Nordic & Swiss Economics Pandemic-era lessons for the Swiss franc Given the uncertainty around Omicron, and the revealed preference of the SNB in recent weeks to largely stay out of the FX market, we would not be surprised to see the Swiss franc rise further against... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Inflation surprised on the upside in Switzerland in November, but this was due to temporary factors and it is likely to fall back to below 1.0% over the coming months. The upshot is that there is next... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Virus news testing the SNB; “Take 2” for Swedish PM Market worries about the B.1.1.529 virus variant have exacerbated upward pressure on the safe-haven Swiss franc and will test the SNB’s tolerance of a stronger currency. In our view, the Bank seems to... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank injects a dash of hawkishness In comparison to the chaotic scenes in the Riksdag yesterday, the Riksbank’s November meeting was a more sedate affair. While the Bank is in no rush to raise the repo rate, the insertion of a rate... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Values to rise further The rebound in economic activity and robust investor demand paved the way for a continued improvement in Scandinavian and Swiss property markets in Q3. Office and industrial values rose further, as... 23rd November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly The energy crisis rumbles on … This week showed that the energy crisis is not in the rear-view mirror just yet. Germany’s energy regulator suspended its certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on Tuesday, owing to... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB abandons its long-standing line of defence We argued only last week that the SNB would be comfortable with letting the Swiss franc rise against the euro. As it happens, after the franc pushed through the long-defended CHF 1.05 per euro mark in... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch An opportunity to dial down the dovishness a touch The Riksbank is all but certain to leave its policy settings on hold next week. But against a backdrop of above-target inflation and the broader hawkish shift by policymakers elsewhere, we expect it... 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Switzerland in the path of the Covid storm Germany and Austria are at the centre of the Covid storm in Europe, and the fact that vaccination coverage in Switzerland is even lower does not bode well. Vaccine take-up varies from about 60-80% in... 16th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Oct.) CPIF inflation rose to a 15-year high in October, although the headline rate was just half that reached in the US, for example, and the core rate remained below 2%. Policymakers won’t be losing sleep... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Would the SNB be comfortable with franc/euro parity? The persistent weakness of Swiss inflation, and the resulting trend appreciation in the nominal exchange rate, presents the SNB with a moving target when assessing when it will intervene during bouts... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Fossil-like Norway won’t go the way of the dinosaurs The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, will not have any discernible impact on Norway’s intention to keep pumping oil and gas over the coming decades. The irony is that Norway’s success in... 10th November 2021 · 13 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fact that the Norges Bank’s target measure of inflation fell to below 1% in October and is likely to remain at around this level until early 2023 will not stop policymakers from pressing on with... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Déjà vu at the SNB; labour shortages reach Greenland The renewed rise in the Swiss franc has lifted it back to territory that will ring alarm bells at the SNB, and the usual release of sight deposit data on Monday morning will indicate whether the Bank... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank treads water before rate hike resumption Following yesterday’s taper announcement by the Fed, and ahead of the knife-edge decision by the Bank of England later today (we forecast a 15bp rate hike), this morning’s announcement from the Norges... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Oct.) Inflation did surprise on the upside in Switzerland in October, but only by a trivial amount, leaving the headline rate at just over 1%. The market is pricing in an increase in policy rates to zero by... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
