FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to join tightening crowd later this year We expect policymakers in Denmark and Switzerland to match the 50bps of interest rate hikes that we now forecast in the euro-zone next year. And against the backdrop of rising global interest rates... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Dec.) While Norwegian policymakers do not have as laser-like a focus on consumer price inflation as most, the increase in the core rate in Norway in December only lends support to our hawkish view that the... 10th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Nationalbank getting stuck in ahead of likely rate cut Following the chunky DKK 47 billion intervention by Denmark’s Nationalbank in December to weaken the krone, we suspect that the bar for a rate cut has already been cleared comfortably. So while many... 7th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Key calls for Switzerland and the Nordics in 2022 We think that GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordics will be slower than most anticipate this year, and the boosts to inflation from energy prices will subside over the year. But while the SNB will... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden ETI (Dec.) The resilience of the ETI in December underlines that the Swedish economy is comparatively well-placed going into 2022. All told, the pressure on the Riksbank to soften its so-far dovish stance is... 21st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Diagnosing the opportunity in European life sciences The pandemic-driven boost in scientific research and development will support demand in the European life science sector, at least for the next few years. This bodes well for several markets we... 20th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB to take ECB’s lead; Stoltenberg for NB? Having drawn flak from domestic banks for keeping interest rates well below zero since 2015, the SNB would surely take the chance to raise its policy rate at the earliest possibility after the ECB... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank to stay ahead of the Fed as SNB holds pat While the Swiss National Bank maintained the status quo once again this morning (yawn), the Norges Bank continued its tightening cycle, as expected, and opened the door to another rate hike in March... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi & Swiss: 2021 as good as it gets for returns The near-term economic outlook has weakened, though GDP in the region had already surpassed its pre-virus levels by Q3. Meanwhile, inflation is set to fall back next year, allowing most central banks... 14th December 2021 · 18 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Nov.) The increase in Swedish CPIF inflation in November strengthens the hand of the hawks at the Riksbank and supports our view that policymakers will reduce the size of the balance sheet next year. But... 14th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly How to get a job at the SNB; declining mobility Our CE Mobility Trackers for Sweden and Norway paint a downbeat picture for the consumer sector and mirror the clear downward trend seen in the euro-zone over H2 2021. So while we still expect the... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline inflation reached a 13-year high in November, mainly driven by energy inflation. But the core rate was more subdued and is likely to remain below the Norges Bank’s target throughout 2022. 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to hike as planned, despite Omicron Omicron means that a Norges Bank rate hike next Thursday is no longer as nailed on a prospect as it once was, but we still think that policymakers will decide to raise rates to +0.50%. Meanwhile... 9th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB’s patience appears to be wearing thin We argued this week that the upside for the Swiss franc was limited and its inability to push past the CHF 1.04 per euro mark suggests that policymakers’ patience may already have been exhausted. We... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Pandemic-era lessons for the Swiss franc Given the uncertainty around Omicron, and the revealed preference of the SNB in recent weeks to largely stay out of the FX market, we would not be surprised to see the Swiss franc rise further against... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
