DM Markets Chart Pack How the war in Ukraine has changed our thinking The war in Ukraine, as well as the hawkish tone adopted by some developed market (DM) central banks, have led us to revise up our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for government bond yields in some DMs and... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Ingves’s epiphany opens door to April Riksbank hike It has been a long time coming, but Riksbank Governor Ingves’s apparent hawkish epiphany finally opens the door to tighter policy in Sweden. While analyst expectations have crowded around September as... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to hike again; SNB to play it cool The Norges Bank will kick off the post-Olsen era next Thursday with a 25bp interest rate hike, to +0.75%, and while we expect it to raise rates three more times this year, the balance of risks is... 17th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Feb.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in February is surely the final nail in the coffin for the Riksbank’s thus-far dovish stance, and lends support to our view that the Bank will... 14th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB say relax; Norges Bank to press on with hikes The SNB does not seem to be losing much sleep about the strength of the franc against the euro, despite the currency’s brief foray past parity earlier this week. The truth of the matter is that euro... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Finland exposed; Swiss franc on cusp of euro parity As we argued only last week, the SNB has so far been willing to let the franc rise against the euro. However, policymakers’ tolerance would surely be tested if the franc were to push through the... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Safe-haven franc not a dire concern for the SNB The divergence between gold prices and the Swiss franc/euro cross rate in the hours after the start of the invasion of Ukraine suggests to us that the SNB intervened to limit the sharp rise in the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Less scope for yield falls There was a material improvement in the Scandinavian and Swiss property markets over 2021. Prime office and industrial capital value growth accelerated. And while prime retail values still declined... 21st February 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Normal service to resume for Swiss/Bund bond spread Yields on 10-year Swiss government bonds have moved in lockstep with those of Bunds since the start of the pandemic, and thus followed their German counterparts above zero in January. While the Swiss... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s CPI surprise; Norway’s glitterati have dinner The pick-up in underlying price pressures in Sweden in January plays into the hands of the Riksbank’s hawks, who are likely to flex their talons, and makes it even more difficult for Cecilia Skingsley... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) The increase in Swedish CPIF excluding energy was significantly higher than expected and pushed the core rate above the Riksbank’s 2.0% target for the first time in nearly three years. While we expect... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update The outlook for German and Swiss Government bonds We think that the gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds will re-emerge over the next couple of years as the ECB tightens policy more quickly than the SNB. In view of the... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Ingves overrules logic and the hawkish mutineers The main takeaways from this week’s Riksbank announcement were that a) Governor Ingves is stubbornly dovish, and; b) three of the six members of the Executive Board advocate “QT” this year. Given that... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jan.) Inflation was stronger than expected in Switzerland in January, although the upward surprise was not in the same league as that seen in the euro-zone and Swiss inflation is still consistent with the... 11th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank unlikely to buck the trend for much longer While the Riksbank largely stuck to its dovish stance this morning, the fact that three of the six members of the Executive Board entered reservations and favoured reducing the size of the balance... 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.) Given the backdrop of a tightening labour market, the fall in CPI-ATE is likely to be a one-off. We think that once the latest wave dissipates, the core inflation rate will pick up again and may rise... 10th February 2022 · 2 mins read
