Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf a bright spot We think that rising oil production and high global energy prices will result in rapid GDP growth this year and next across the Gulf economies. Growth is likely to be well above consensus expectations... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas crisis heightens German recession risk Recent developments have further increased the chance that there is a complete end to Russian exports of gas to Germany. If this occurred, it would lead to a substantial fall in manufacturing output... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Non-energy prices only have so much more to fall Most commodity prices fell this week as demand concerns picked up due to ongoing monetary policy tightening by major central banks. Speaking to the US Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, Federal... 24th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy OPEC+ to change tack from September Whilst OPEC+ has been failing to meet its production quotas in recent months, it will technically finish unwinding its pandemic-related supply cuts come September. We think OPEC+ will then move to a... 23rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ policy, Egypt’s orthodox shift and FY22/23 budget Next Thursday's OPEC+ meeting may drop some hints about the future for the group's oil output beyond September and we think that quotas are likely to be lifted. If that’s the case, the Gulf economies... 23rd June 2022 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Supply concerns to dominate in gas markets European natural gas prices surged this week on renewed supply concerns, as Russia once again cut gas supplies to Europe and the US Freeport LNG export facility closed for six months. The huge price... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed adds to growing external risks The 75bp interest rate hike by the US Fed this week and expectations for further large hikes in the coming months will have ripple effects across the region. It is likely that Hungary's central bank... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Europe’s gas supply looking increasingly fragile Russia’s decision to once again cut supplies to Europe makes the region’s gas supply look increasingly precarious. The move will slow regional stock builds and keep prices historically high. 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Fed hikes, Egypt’s policymaking, Egypt-Israel-EU gas deal Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed in hiking interest rates and further tightening lies in store. But there are reasons to think that the region’s economies will be relatively unscathed by... 16th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose again this week, following another unusually large release from the strategic reserve. Meanwhile, implied product demand fell back as petroleum product prices remain very... 15th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Freeport outage fuels already heightened supply fears The closure of the Freeport LNG facility in the US, for up to six months, adds to concerns about Europe’s ability to fill its gas storage tanks ahead of winter. We always suspected that supply... 15th June 2022 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (June) The gap between OPEC-10’s quota and output widened further in May, which adds weight to our view that the group will fail to fully unwind its production cuts by year-end. What’s more, whilst OPEC now... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Lockdowns are only part of China’s subdued demand The supply risks associated with the war in Ukraine have not gone away, but there has been more market attention in recent weeks on the outlook for commodities demand. In the very near term, the... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, PMIs, Tunisia austerity plans Last week’s decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace at which it is raising its oil production quota will provide a fillip to economic growth in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Meanwhile, May’s batch of... 9th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi economy set for a strong couple of years Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery is likely to be one of the strongest in the emerging world over the next couple of years as oil output is ramped up and fiscal policy is loosened. We expect GDP growth... 9th June 2022 · 15 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks rose this week owing to an unusually large release from the strategic reserve and a slump in crude exports. Interestingly, implied product demand ticked up, after being... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
