Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s energy crisis: the impact on Russia & CEE The decision by Gazprom to cut natural gas supplies to Europe to 20% of capacity has caused gas prices to surge and raised the risk of energy shortages during the winter. A full gas cut-off would... 27th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies feeling the oil boost The recently-released activity data from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain confirmed that strong hydrocarbon production supported rapid economic growth at the start of this year. And strong... 27th July 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM risks building as global backdrop worsens EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect in 2022 and 2023 as China’s economy rebounds only moderately and activity slows elsewhere. Inflation is set to remain elevated for some time yet, and... 26th July 2022 · 28 mins read
Global Economics Update The natural gas crisis and the global economy The news today that Gazprom will further reduce its natural gas supply to Europe increases the likelihood of recessions in the euro-zone, UK and parts of Emerging Europe. It also supports our view... 26th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Dollar strength likely to return and weigh on prices It was a more positive week for prices, in large part owing to some softness in the US dollar. Otherwise, the news was not particularly positive for prices given the ECB’s surprise decision to hike... 22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine default, Russia return to fiscal normality? Policymakers in Ukraine devalued the hryvnia this week and asked creditors to suspend debt repayments, which will free up funds for the government, but will add to inflation and increase balance sheet... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Limits to ECB’s “unlimited” tool will soon be tested The ECB new spread-fighting tool received this week a lukewarm welcome from investors, despite its potential for unlimited asset purchases. That reflects both the ambiguity surrounding the criteria... 22nd July 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul.) Spending on travel and leisure is supporting activity and has so far prevented the UK composite flash PMI from joining the euro-zone’s PMI in contraction territory. Perhaps even more encouraging was... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Commodities boost unwinding High energy and agricultural prices helped to cushion Latin American economies over the first half of the year, but the second half will be much more challenging. As growth slows, fiscal concerns are... 21st July 2022 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil fuelling a gulf in growth The spillovers from the war in Ukraine are driving a divergence in the region’s outlook. Higher oil output and looser policy will drive above-consensus GDP growth in the Gulf this year and next... 21st July 2022 · 25 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks fell last week, largely on the back of a rise in exports and a drop in imports. The fall came despite another bumper release from the strategic reserve. As those government stock... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Sharp slowdown in store as storm clouds gather Economies in Emerging Europe were resilient in the first half of this year, but the outlook has deteriorated markedly as headwinds have strengthened. Inflation is likely to continue rising and we... 20th July 2022 · 26 mins read
Commodities Update Energy and materials stocks may continue to underperform Although we doubt that they will fare quite as badly as they have in recent weeks, we still expect the energy and materials sectors of global stock markets to underperform over the next couple of... 19th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update LNG prices to remain historically high Europe’s heightened demand for LNG will be enough to keep prices high this year and into 2023, particularly as LNG supply growth will be fairly limited. 18th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears in the driving seat, for now Most commodity prices fell this week as global monetary tightening and fears about economic growth intensified. The high June inflation reading in the US nails on another large rate hike at the FOMC’s... 15th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Total crude stocks fell again, mainly due to ongoing sales from the strategic reserve. That said, the big news was hefty builds in petroleum product stocks, suggesting that high prices are finally... 13th July 2022 · 2 mins read
