Energy Update Europe should avoid widespread gas rationing We don’t think Europe will be forced to widely ration natural gas this winter because the sky-high price should attract sufficient LNG from abroad to replace reduced imports from Russia, whilst also... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to press on with rate hikes as gas crisis intensifies European gas prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past month, rising to a peak of €340/MWh before falling back to around €240 to leave them about 50% higher than at the time of the ECB’s... 7th September 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Nord Stream shut-off adds to risks facing Germany Gazprom’s decision to shut Nord Stream 1 indefinitely has added to the risks facing Germany’s economy, but the size of the economic damage is still highly uncertain. And the €65bn fiscal package... 5th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A revived Iran nuclear deal would tie OPEC’s hands A revived Iran nuclear deal would quickly bring an additional 1mn bpd of crude oil production online, which would directly weigh on global oil prices. But the bigger impact would be to make it less... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Soaring energy costs, wage inflation trending higher The surge in natural gas prices amid supply concerns this week piled on the economic gloom for the euro-zone and we have revised our growth forecasts down further. But price pressures remain intense... 26th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s gas crisis The surge in natural gas prices is a key reason why we expect Italy to fall into recession soon. If Russia stopped exporting gas to Europe entirely, Italy would suffer more than most but less than... 26th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s hurdles to an IMF deal, Saudi threatens oil cut Egypt appears to be edging closer toward reaching a new IMF deal with officials having made positive steps in recent months to address the exchange rate, fiscal policy, and structural reforms, all of... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s gas squeeze: the impact so far and next steps Russia’s squeeze on the gas market helped it to generate $50bn (6% of GDP) in total gas exports in the first half of this year, 2-3 times more than normal. Russia’s balance of payments is in such a... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell again this week, despite a chunky release from the strategic reserve. Elsewhere, there was a large weekly decline in implied product demand. It appears that the fall in... 24th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Sky-high gas prices here to stay, with risks to the upside We have revised up our forecasts of the European natural gas price due to the scale of Russia’s supply cuts and the likelihood that these are permanent. Prices should ease back in 2023 as Europe... 24th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas shock bigger than 1970s oil shocks For most major euro-zone countries the terms of trade shock from higher gas prices this year will be bigger than both the 1974 and 1979 oil shocks. How this plays out in the coming months depends on... 23rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Pressure from rising Treasury yields likely to resume This week the prices of most commodities got a boost as investors pared back expectations for rate hikes in the US, following lower than expected inflation data. That said, we still expect a further... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy crisis hotting up The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal... 12th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway faces its own energy crisis While Norway is not directly in the firing line from the reduction in Russia’s gas exports, it has now got its own problems with low water levels in its hydro reservoirs. This may add a bit to Norway... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) OPEC’s monthly report for August showed that the group continues to produce significantly less than its quota and we expect this trend to continue in the coming months. OPEC is clearly worried about... 11th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt: PIF steps up investment; CBE rate hike on the cards Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has stepped up investments into Egypt this week that will help to ease external financing concerns. At the same time, electricity rationing will begin next week... 11th August 2022 · 6 mins read
