Europe Economics Weekly Recession postponed or even cancelled We suspect that the resilience of the economy in late-2022 was due to the combination of lower energy prices, increased government support and easing supply problems in industry, while the drag from... 20th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s riots, Peru turmoil, Mexico’s USMCA win Brazil’s financial markets have recovered after an initial drop following the riots in Brasília last Sunday, but we think there are reasons for caution. This is all coming at a time when the economy... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s ruling party policies stuck in old ways At a key policy conference, South Africa’s ruling party officials offered little by way of new ideas to address the country’s mounting economic challenges. And some fresh proposals risk making matters... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What do the latest falls in the EGP mean for Egypt? The Egyptian pound has pared its losses after sharp falls against the dollar on Wednesday in a sign that, just like 2016, the currency may have overshot. The central bank may sense an opportunity to... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Runners and riders in Nigeria’s upcoming elections In the first instalment of our Election Watch series ahead of the late-February polls in Nigeria, we assess the economic policies proposed by key candidates. The elections offer a chance to depart... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update A faster-than-expected turnaround We had expected disruption from China’s reopening wave of COVID infections to weigh heavily on activity well into Q1. But there is mounting evidence that much of China’s population has already been... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A look ahead to EM elections in 2023 In this Update, we take a look at the key elections that are scheduled across the emerging world this year. The most notable ones are in Argentina, Nigeria and Turkey, where opposition victories could... 10th January 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Shift to a bigger state won’t curtail GDP growth While the shift towards higher taxes and spending after the pandemic appears to be here to stay, there is little to suggest an expanded state would curtail GDP growth. But without supply-side reforms... 10th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on the riots in Brasília The implications of the invasion of Brazil’s congress by protestors yesterday are mainly political. But the riots could result in a long-lasting risk premium on the country’s financial assets... 9th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lula’s first presidential (mis)steps, Colombian inflation The first speeches and actions by Brazil’s president Lula after his inauguration earlier this week reinforce our view that his presidential term will be characterised by higher public spending and a... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Already past the worst? New COVID infections across much of China may already be dropping back just as quickly as they surged only a month ago. Shops and streets are getting busier. A full return to normality is probably... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack Three years on It is three years since a cluster of cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan. Chart 1 maps economic developments in China since then. The blue bars show cumulative growth since... 4th January 2023 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reflecting on 2022 and looking ahead to 2023 This year has been was a surprisingly positive one for Latin America – growth has exceeded even our once above consensus expectations and has surpassed most other EM regions. But the opposite is... 23rd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Sanctions biting in Russia, three key themes for 2023 The fall in the ruble this week is a sign that the new sanctions on Russia’s oil exports are beginning to bite and, if the currency continues to fall, interest rate hikes may come back onto the table... 23rd December 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly The most dangerous weeks of the pandemic in China China is entering the most dangerous weeks of the pandemic. The authorities are making almost no efforts now to slow the spread of infections and, with the migration ahead of Lunar New Year getting... 23rd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisian debt, Morocco & CBAM, Jordan protests The result of parliamentary elections in Tunisia last weekend will probably strengthen President Saied’s ability to pass laws, but could also dissuade the IMF from formally approving a financing... 22nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
