Event EM Asia Drop-In: Thailand’s election and near to long-term economic risks 11th May 2023, 9:00AM BST The Thai economy is poised for recovery this year, but before that the country faces a contentious general election on 14th May which could be a trigger for fresh political unrest. Beyond the near...
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump threatened a 100% import tariff on the BRICS countries unless they pledge not to create their own currency. In this note from 2023, we outlined the... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, Tunisia-IMF, Egypt default concerns The fall in oil prices this week has taken them to a level at which Saudi Arabia will be running a budget deficit and may have closed the door on the prospect of looser fiscal policy in the Gulf. It... 4th May 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling uncertainty only likely to grow A bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling alongside modest cuts to government spending still appears to be the most likely way out of the current impasse. It’s possible that moderate Republicans... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey election preview: the current state of play Parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th May will make or break macroeconomic stability in Turkey. As things stand it looks more likely that opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu will become the... 3rd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Turkey’s make or break election 1683723600 It's crunch time for Turkey, with parliamentary and presidential elections on 14th May offering voters a clear choice between a way back from the unorthodox policies of Recep Tayyip Erdogan or a co
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s BoP improves, but pound pressure to persist Egypt’s balance of payments (BoP) position strengthened markedly late last year, but policymakers’ reluctance to live up to their reform promises appears to be causing capital inflows to slow to a... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus What to do about Japan’s large corporate surplus? Japan’s large corporate sector surpluses are a key source of deflationary pressure. Corporate savings surged in the 1990s, primarily because net interest payments slumped, and have since remained... 2nd May 2023 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s peso woes, Paraguay’s China-Taiwan vote The measures undertaken by Argentina's government to stem the run on the peso over the past couple of weeks might provide some temporary relief, but with inflation and the fiscal position continuing... 28th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt default fears on the rise The IMF and foreign investors are growing increasingly concerned about the lack of reform progress from Egypt’s government. The pound appears to still be heavily managed and the government’s... 27th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: political risks back in the spotlight The replacement of Colombia’s market-friendly finance minister José Antonio Ocampo with a close ally of President Petro is likely to lead to a sell-off in Colombia’s financial assets when markets open... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack IMF deals in choppy waters Balance of payments strains have prompted Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia to turn to the IMF over the past six months or so, but agreements in Egypt and Tunisia are faltering. The IMF postponed its first... 26th April 2023 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB shifting to cuts, Turkey bracing for election result The Hungarian central bank (MNB) looks set to take its first steps towards lowering interest rates at its meeting next week by cutting the upper end of its interest rate corridor. Policymakers will... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF, COP28, Tunisia politics, Black Sea grain The latest transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco by the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will help meet the Kingdom meet its Vision 2030 goals, but it will not reduce the state’s dependency... 20th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A breakthrough in the debt restructuring standoff? Glimmers of hope have emerged this week about unlocking the stalemate over the global debt restructuring framework, with encouraging signs for negotiations in Zambia and Ghana. But we fear that the... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines straddling US-China rift, IMF too optimistic So far, the Philippines appears to be successfully straddling the geopolitical divide as it tries to improve its political and military ties with the US, while also building on its strong economic... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
