Latin America Economics Update Policy paralysis here to stay in Peru The impeachment of Peru’s controversial (former) left-wing President Pedro Castillo might bring short-term relief to investors, but it does not solve Peru’s governability issues. With policy paralysis... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall rapidly in 2023, as recession bites We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment... 5th December 2022 · 24 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and policymaking in SA: stirred or shaken? South Africa’s political turmoil that severely endangered President Cyril Ramaphosa’s position has already shaken the country’s financial markets. In part, this is related to the prospect of the... 2nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s vulnerabilities, Peru’s chaos, Venezuelan oil The easing of some US sanctions will give a small boost to Venezuela’s oil output, but it would take much more on the sanctions front – as well as huge investment – to boost oil production... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE focus will shift from pace of rate hikes to level of rates The news that higher interest rates are starting to influence the economy will at some point soon prompt the Bank of England to start thinking more about the appropriate level of interest rates rather... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccination targets point to mid-2023 reopening goal The recent easing of virus restrictions in many cities reflects efforts to streamline the zero-COVID policy rather than abandon it in the near-term. By setting concrete targets for elderly vaccination... 2nd December 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update “Farmgate”, Ramaphosa and South Africa’s economy The damning report into corruption allegations surrounding South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa has increased the possibility of him either resigning or being removed from office. Even if he stays... 1st December 2022 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Early preparations to exit zero-COVID Concrete signs of an effort to exit from zero-COVID are emerging, with a notice today of a push to vaccinate the elderly. The low level of vaccine coverage of the most vulnerable is, along with a lack... 29th November 2022 · 12 mins read
China Economics Update How will the authorities respond? The authorities will not allow a protest movement to occupy China’s streets for any length of time. If the protests continue, a crackdown is very likely. They have no good options in the near-term to... 28th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil price cap lacking consensus, Russia’s 2023 budget Details about a potential price cap on Russian oil this week of $65-70pb are bringing us to the view that it won't have much of an immediate impact on Russia. We think the combination of the EU oil... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly 75bp hike still on the table, QT talk intensifying Comments by ECB officials suggest that a slowdown in the pace of tightening, from a 75bp to a 50bp hike, still looks likely in December. But it’s not yet a done deal, with some officials seemingly... 25th November 2022 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Patching up relations with the West, help for developers There has been a palpable easing of strains between China and the West since the cordial meeting last week between Xi and Biden. But the root causes of distrust haven’t changed – if anything, recent... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korean truckers on strike, Taiwan local elections The costs of a strike by Korean truck drivers – the second this year – are starting to mount, with steel and cement producers reporting disruption. A prolonged period of industrial action would be... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Event China Drop-In: zero-COVID at the limits – domestic and global consequences 1669734000 As China's new infection numbers hit a record, its zero-COVID policy is coming under severe strain.
India Economics Weekly Why the Gujarat election matters for investors State elections in India matter for economic policy but next week’s vote in Gujarat arguably holds more significance than most others. It is the manufacturing powerhouse of the country and, linked to... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ tensions, US-Saudi relations, Saudi-Argentina The volatility of oil prices has highlighted the uncertainty over the current OPEC+ oil output agreement and adds to our view that, with tensions already reportedly strained between members, the... 24th November 2022 · 6 mins read
