Japan Economics Weekly Pick-up in inward FDI has further to run Japan is less welcoming to foreign direct investment than many other rich economies. But cuts to corporate tax rates, the prospect of additional free trade agreements and high profitability are making... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: interest rates to fall further than most expect in 2018 We’ve argued for some time that the debate around monetary policy in Mexico would shift from tightening to loosening over the second half of this year. While the potential for market volatility in the... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen to weaken further US 10-year government bond yields have climbed to a two-month high in recent days and we expect them to rise further in coming months. By contrast, the Bank of Japan has underlined its determination... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) Machinery orders fell to a one-year low in May. But with capacity shortages intensifying and capital goods shipments rebounding, business investment should continue to expand. 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Is the economy succumbing to Brexit worries? The disappointing tone of this week’s survey evidence and hard economic data has raised concern that the economy is now succumbing to Brexit fears. However, there were probably some non-Brexit related... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly CDU manifesto does little to alter German outlook Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union unveiled its manifesto this week, including plans income tax cuts and increased child benefits. But the proposed giveaways are small and the party, which... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus When and how fast will the MPC tighten? While there is no urgency for the MPC to dampen inflationary pressures, the extraordinary starting point of policy and general resilience of the economy suggest that UK interest rates are likely to... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: ANC divided, but moderates fight back The ANC’s policy conference highlighted divisions within the party, and suggested a significant pushback against its recent leftist turn. While the president’s more populist faction is weakened, a... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update EU trade deal could boost productivity somewhat The impact of the proposed tariff cuts in the EU/Japan free trade agreement should not be overstated. But the deal will also reduce non-tariff barriers and barriers to foreign direct investment which... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Health care reform could provide a small boost to economy There is still considerable uncertainty over whether Congress will vote to approve a new healthcare bill but, if it does, the short-term effects on the economy would probably be mildly positive and... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST likely to cause some near-term disruption The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was finally rolled out in India over the weekend, over a decade after its conception. There are bound to be some teething problems in the coming weeks and months, but... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update LDP will have to respond to crushing defeat in Tokyo While the ruling LDP’s severe defeat in local elections in Tokyo is not necessarily a bellwether to developments at the national level, we think that the government may respond with a larger... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) The jump in the Tankan’s headline index for large manufacturers suggests that economic activity accelerated last quarter. Capacity shortages have intensified and manufacturers are reporting the... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Politics rocks the Gulf Political developments have dominated the news in the MENA region this month. In Qatar, financial markets have sold off amid a diplomatic spat with regional powers. So far, though, the broader... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Temer clings on Despite the crisis that has engulfed his administration, Brazil’s president, Michel Temer, is managing to cling on to office and there is now a reasonable chance that he serves out his full term to... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Mining charter an ominous sign of things to come Revisions to the charter governing South Africa’s mining sector have been opposed by the industry and rattled the markets. In this Watch, we examine the industry’s complaints, explain the political... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
