Political drama overshadows gradual recovery

Attention over the past month has focused on political developments in South Africa and (to an admittedly lesser extent) Ethiopia. After refusing to heed repeated calls to reign, South African President Jacob Zuma finally agreed to leave office voluntarily on 14th February. Investors welcomed the subsequent appointment of Cyril Ramaphosa, though the small scale of the jump in local markets supports our belief that the move was largely priced in. Ethiopia’s leader also resigned this month. But the succession there remains unclear, and recent signs point to divides within the ruling party. Lower-profile economic news released over the past month supports our view that economies across Africa gained momentum in late 2017. The acceleration was particularly pronounced Nigeria and South Africa. But recent data also pointed to stronger growth in Ghana. Conditions were probably weaker in Angola, Uganda, and Tanzania.