India Economics Update Karnataka election a key bellwether for PM Modi In India’s decentralised political system, state elections such as the upcoming vote in Karnataka can have a direct bearing on economic policy. Arguably more significant though, a convincing... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowdown in bank lending no cause for concern The continued slowdown in bank lending seems to vindicate the Bank of Japan’s concerns that low policy rates are undermining financial intermediation. But broader measures of credit availability... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Ageing unlikely to lower productivity growth any further Population ageing explains little of the recent slowdown in productivity growth. And with the pace of greying not picking up any further, we expect productivity growth to rebound to 1% per annum over... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nafta 2.0: what’s on the table? Following intensive talks last month, a preliminary new Nafta deal appears to be within reach. While it could still struggle to pass through legislatures in each country, the deal that looks to be on... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus China & Africa: Setting the record straight Perceptions of the economic ties between China and Africa are often based on inaccurate assumptions. In this Focus we debunk three key myths. The China-Africa relationship is not as state-driven, as... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Key questions about the UK local elections Local elections tend not to be a big deal, at least from an economic perspective. Turnout is typically low, and many voters are swayed by local issues. Nonetheless, given the fragile political... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Trump and the Iran nuclear deal There’s a growing chance that US President Donald Trump will refuse to waive sanctions on Iran later this month. In this Update, we answer five key questions on the sanctions and the nuclear deal, as... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Time to turn bullish on Mexico? The outlook for Mexico’s economy is, despite worries over Nafta renegotiations and an Andrés Manuel López Obrador presidency, brighter than many seem to think. We’ve revised up our forecasts and now... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Germany to US tariffs? Germany faces little threat from the US aluminium and steel tariffs that might come into force this week, but would be hit harder than most other European economies if the US imposed broader tariffs... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Election could make Malaysia’s problems worse Despite facing a resurgent opposition, Prime Minister Najib Razak is favourite to win a third term in a general election due on 9 th May. A victory for Najib would probably lead to a short-term fiscal... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal would boost foreign investment This week brought a furious last-minute push from all sides to reach a provisional deal on updating NAFTA, ahead of July’s Mexican presidential election. The US congressional mid-term elections won’t... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Summit talks and the impact on Korea’s economy Today’s landmark summit between the two Koreas should help to remove a major tail risk for the region’s markets and economies. However, the impact on South Korea’s economy of an easing in tensions is... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update The fading impact of the opioid crisis The opioid crisis is still costing lives and devastating communities, but its impact on the labour market is at least beginning to fade. The sharp fall in prescription rates last year suggests that... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe shrugs off softness in euro-zone The latest data suggest that, while GDP growth in Central Europe has now peaked, it remained strong at 4.5-5.0% y/y in Q1. That came in spite of a raft of softer activity and survey figures from key... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy gathering momentum Indian GDP growth hit a five-quarter high in Q4 2017, and various indicators suggest that the economy strengthened further in the first quarter of 2018. Industrial production growth last quarter may... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: pre-election fiscal boost to fade over 2018 Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party has gained a reputation for fiscal prudence in the past few years, but the latest data suggest that stimulus in the run-up to April’s parliamentary election has caused... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
