US Economics Weekly G7 summit to highlight divisions on trade America’s isolation on trade policy, which will be on full show at this weekend’s G7 summit in Canada, raises the (admittedly still small) risks of a worst-case scenario in which the US tears up NAFTA... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: IMF deal imposes ambitious fiscal targets Confirmation that Argentina has reached an agreement with the IMF over a financing package will help to restore investor confidence and provide a much-needed anchor for the country’s necessary... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Pick-up in fertility too little, too late The slump in the share of young women that are married combined with the delay when women have their first child suggest that the fertility rate may at best rise from the current 1.4 to around 1.5... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How will the Trump-Kim summit impact South Korea? Next week’s summit between Donald Trump and North Korean leader, Kim Jung Un, is a big deal politically, but even if a major breakthrough is announced, the impact on South Korea’s financial markets... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Springtime in Addis Ababa? Reforms announced by Ethiopia’s government could upend the country’s political and economic model. This may eventually boost growth, but a delicate period of liberalisation will increase the risk of... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Jordan protests unlikely to upend IMF deal Ongoing protests in Jordan have already prompted the resignation of the prime minister and King Abdullah seems to be taking further steps to defuse the situation. The new tax law which triggered the... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: What to make of BNM head’s resignation The resignation of Malaysia’s central bank governor amid accusations of corruption at the Bank is an encouraging sign that the new government’s anti-corruption drive is gathering pace. The new... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy resilient to renewed trade tensions The risk of a global trade war has risen in the past few weeks. President Trump has gone ahead with plans to levy tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which is likely to provoke retaliation. In... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the sanctions impact The imposition of more stringent US financial sanctions in April seems to have resulted in a long-lasting premium in Russia’s currency and bond market. But there has been little convincing evidence of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Privatisation plans fail to take off The government’s record privatisation target set for this year is dependent in part on a smooth sale of a large stake in Air India. But with no firms having shown any serious interest in making a bid... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spain can cope without Rajoy but Italian politics still a worry In any other week, the imposition of tariffs on the EU by the US would have taken centre stage. But amid the political and market turmoil in Italy and the downfall of Spain’s government, this was no... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Geopolitics more likely to affect ECB than the Fed For now, we don’t expect the geopolitical developments to alter the behaviour of the major central banks. Provided that the political crisis in Italy does not flare up again, we think the ECB is... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Spending (Q1) Today’s capital spending confirmed that investment was sluggish last quarter and suggest that we won’t see major revisions in the second estimate of Q1 GDP. 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How could Italy’s problems affect Emerging Europe? Recent developments in Italy do not pose an immediate threat to economies in Emerging Europe but a significant escalation in the crisis would cause problems for countries in the region, particularly... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Banks outside the euro-zone not too exposed to Italy The direct exposure to Italy of banks located outside the euro-zone is small compared to that of their peers based in other euro-zone countries. This offers some reassurance that any fallout from... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) Industrial production didn’t rise as much in April as most had anticipated. But the economy should still have returned to growth this quarter. 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
