Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices The RBA expects headline inflation to drop back from 3.8% in Q2 to 1.5% by mid-2022. By contrast, we now only expect it to fall to 2.5% over this period, reflecting the pass-through from soaring coal... 30th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian central banks in little rush to raise rates Over the past month or so, the central banks of Korea, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have all raised interest rates, but we don’t think other countries will be in any rush to follow suit. There is certainly... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Re-opening boost fades as supply disruptions mount Economies across Emerging Europe enjoyed a rapid rebound in Q2, but all the signs suggest that the recovery has come off the boil in Q3. Surveys of sentiment in services sectors have started to... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Aug.) The tepid increase in consumer credit in August provides more evidence that the economy didn’t regain much momentum after stagnating in July. And with the current fuel crisis restraining activity... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Labour shortages getting worse Labour shortages have intensified in recent months, which could both act as a brake on the recovery and lead to a stronger acceleration in wage growth. According to the CFIB Business Barometer, the... 27th September 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling crisis can still be avoided We still expect Congress to avoid a partial government shutdown at the start of next month and to raise the debt ceiling before a full-blown crisis develops in late October. But the negotiations over... 27th September 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Fed & China risks point to a stronger dollar In a choppy week dominated by some surprising central bank announcements and the ongoing uncertainty around China’s property sector, the US dollar continued to make some headway, especially against... 24th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the sell-off in Gilts is over We expect the 10-year Gilt yield to continue to rise over the next few years, but at a much slower pace than recently. 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Why we changed our mind on the BoE There were two key reasons behind our decision to forecast that the Bank of England will first raise interest rates in 2022 rather than in 2023. First, there is more evidence that the rise in... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Local governments prepare to step in Evergrande creditors face a bumpy few weeks with a string of bond coupon payments due. Even if the company can scrape together the cash – not at all certain, given that it just missed one payment... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly APRA to impose lending restrictions by mid-2022 While house prices have surged, household debt remains contained and lending standards remain sound overall. However, housing credit growth is set to accelerate and there are already signs that some... 24th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Qatar gas, Morocco FX purchases, Tunisian turmoil The continued rise in global gas prices will provide a substantial boost to Qatar's export revenues and provide scope for policymakers to loosen the purse strings to support the economic recovery... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The divergence between the FOMC and financial markets Judging by the reaction in bond markets to yesterday’s Fed announcement, investors are sceptical the central bank will have to hike rates by as much as it is signalling it will. But if, as we expect... 23rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Economics MPC getting closer to tightening policy While rates were left at +0.10% in an 9-0 vote and the Bank of England’s target stock of purchased assets at £895bn, today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policy statement suggests that the Bank is... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Investors underestimating pace of Norges Bank hikes This morning’s policy decision double-header played out as planned, with the Swiss National Bank maintaining the status quo and the Norges Bank finally pulling the trigger on its tightening cycle. But... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
