Latin America Economics Update Tighter financial conditions to hold back recoveries Financial conditions in Latin America have tightened sharply this year, most notably in Brazil and Chile, on the back of aggressive monetary tightening and growing political and/or fiscal risks. With... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ to stay the course, Qatari banks, Saudi’s new NIF We think OPEC+ will stick to its guns next week and raise output quotas by 400,000bpd, but if it bows to pressure to move more quickly the Gulf economies would stand to benefit most. Elsewhere... 28th October 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics BoE fast out of the blocks on rates, but won’t go the distance We now think there’s a high chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.10% to 0.25% at the meeting on Thursday 4 th November. It may then raise rates to 0.50% in... 28th October 2021 · 13 mins read
China Economic Outlook Downturn setting in The economy slowed sharply in Q3. Weakness in services is already reversing as virus controls have been relaxed again. But industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper downturn that could... 26th October 2021 · 23 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar edges lower ahead of next round of CB meetings With a couple of exceptions, currency markets have had a quiet week; the US dollar is ending the week a touch weaker against most other currencies, but in aggregate it remains close to its strongest... 22nd October 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth to disappoint as CRB ends The winding down of government support to households and firms means the economy faces a large fiscal contraction this quarter, which we think will cause GDP growth to disappoint. 22nd October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR accelerates its tightening cycle again Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle again at today’s meeting with a larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate hike, to 7.50%, and the hawkish tone of the accompanying... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A fresh start for the Bundesbank? Other than Mr Weidmann’s abrupt departure from the Bundesbank, the news this week has been dominated by the twin problems of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. There is more bad news to... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Fiscal policy back in focus The upward shift in investors’ interest rate expectations over the past month has been remarkable. While it is impossible to predict the timing of the first rate hike with any certainty, we have more... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Supply issues biting in Sweden; e-krona has a logo! We assume that Swedish output recovered about two thirds of August’s precipitous plunge in September, and that preliminary Q3 GDP data due for release next week will show that the economy grew by 0.7%... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President... 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB insisting that inflation is largely transient Nobody expects the ECB Governing Council to make any policy changes at next week’s monetary policy meeting. However, Christine Lagarde will address concerns about rising inflationary pressures and we... 21st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to call time on QE We expect the Bank of Canada to call time on its net asset purchases next week by transitioning to the “reinvestment phase” of QE. Widespread labour shortages suggest economic slack is being rapidly... 21st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT now playing with fire after aggressive rate cut Any remaining confidence in the credibility of Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) was shattered after today’s larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate cut, to 16.00%. The lira hit a fresh record low against... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Uncertainty over Fed’s reaction function We are confident in our new forecasts that GDP growth will be a disappointing 2.7% in 2022 and 2.0% in 2023, while core inflation remains elevated at close to 3%, but we are less confident in our... 21st October 2021 · 9 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to look through weaker yen and supply shortages Sitting comfortably with continuity candidate PM Kishida in charge, the Bank of Japan won’t alter its major policy settings at its October meeting. And we doubt the Bank will respond with policy... 21st October 2021 · 8 mins read
