Latin America Economics Focus A fresh look at Brazil’s public debt problem Suggestions that Brazil’s government will raise welfare spending – and circumvent the spending cap in doing so – add to the evidence that there’s little appetite for the long-term fiscal squeeze... 20th October 2021 · 14 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Supply shortages limiting economic growth We now expect GDP growth to be 4.8% in 2021, rather than 5.0%, and 3.5% in 2022, down from 4.0%. Worsening labour shortages imply that spare capacity has been rapidly absorbed and point to a sharp... 20th October 2021 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Well placed to navigate choppy waters As highly-open economies, Switzerland and the Nordics are far from immune to the issues of slowing global growth and supply-chain shortages that are currently vexing investors. Sweden is perhaps most... 20th October 2021 · 13 mins read
India Chart Pack RBI in no hurry to withdraw policy support The latest activity data suggest that India's recovery has entered a slower phase, with global supply shortages starting to weigh on the economy too. In addition, India’s vaccination coverage remains... 20th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Running into troubled waters Supply chain problems will slow the recovery and keep inflation above target until around the middle of next year. Beyond that, however, the economy should get back on track. After regaining its pre... 19th October 2021 · 31 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to outperform Economic recoveries in the Gulf will continue to gather pace over the coming year on the back of successful vaccine rollouts and higher oil output, and our GDP growth forecasts lie above the consensus... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
UK Economics A taste of stagflation The UK economy is experiencing a taste of stagflation. This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s. But for the next six months, the worsening product and labour shortages... 19th October 2021 · 27 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q3) The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys point to significant upside risks to wage growth. That said, as wage growth was still low in September and the surveys suggest that longer-term inflation... 18th October 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Broad credit growth continued to slide in September and is now at its slowest pace since December 2005. We think credit growth will level off in the coming quarters, as PBOC policy turns more... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Signals from the SARB, Nigeria’s humdrum budget The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) Monetary Policy Review published this week put monetary policy normalisation back in the centre of attention, and it now seems that policymakers are unlikely... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Congress hits snooze on the debt ceiling Even the more modest 194,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September is “decent” enough for the Fed to announce at next month’s meeting that it will begin tapering its asset purchases, especially now... 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update What would a lower inflation target mean for S. Africa? South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor Lesetja Kganyago has recently raised the prospect of lowering the inflation target and, in this Update, we answer five key questions on what it would mean... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI ends asset purchases, rate hike now likely in 2022 The Bank of Israel revised up its forecast for GDP growth at today’s meeting and struck a more hawkish tone on inflation as it announced that it will end its asset purchase programme later this year... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB growing more uncertain about inflation outlook The account of September’s ECB meeting revealed many policymakers believed that inflation may stay higher for longer than the Bank’s projections show. Recent developments have added to the upside... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Conditions for strong recovery finally in place With the Delta wave having ebbed and the majority of the population now fully vaccinated, we expect a strong rebound in domestic demand over the coming months. But the inflation concerns that hang... 7th October 2021 · 21 mins read
