Emerging Europe Economics Update Where do the risks lie across banking sectors? Banking sectors in Emerging Europe have come through the pandemic with few scars and vulnerabilities generally remain low, but we identify three potential areas of concern, including deposit... 7th December 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Omicron may weaken activity but lift price pressures While the emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant has increased the downside risks to our GDP forecasts, it has arguably increased the upside risks to our CPI inflation forecasts. The... 7th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Omicron adds to downside risks High frequency data show that travel to retail and recreation destinations, restaurant bookings and flights have all declined in the past few weeks as coronavirus restrictions have been tightened in... 6th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB’s patience appears to be wearing thin We argued this week that the upside for the Swiss franc was limited and its inability to push past the CHF 1.04 per euro mark suggests that policymakers’ patience may already have been exhausted. We... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Debt sustainability in Zambia: mission impossible? Zambia’s new administration has made encouraging noises about restoring macroeconomic stability and addressing the country’s public debt problem. But it will be a tall order to secure a large... 2nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to keep policy rate guidance unchanged Growing wage pressures and the renewed strength of house prices are likely to concern the Bank of Canada but, with oil prices plunging in the past week due to fears about the Omicron variant, we doubt... 1st December 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron shines spotlight on low vaccine coverage The emergence of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 reinforces the need to boost vaccine coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa from current low levels. Most countries have administered at least one vaccine dose... 30th November 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Oct.) The rise in consumer credit in October adds to evidence that economic activity fared well at the start of Q4. But that no longer offers much comfort in light of the discovery of the new Omicron... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Diverging outlook for monetary policy While the RBNZ has lifted interest rates by 50bp and signalled that as much as 200bp of tightening is still to come, the RBA’s central scenario remains that interest rates won’t be raised until 2024... 29th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how strong is the fiscal picture? Turkey’s public finances have become more vulnerable to falls in the currency in recent years, although we think the likelihood of sovereign default is very low. Perhaps the bigger risk for the public... 25th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Backsliding on reforms? The repeal this month of controversial reforms aimed at liberalising the agriculture sector is arguably the biggest political setback that the Modi government has faced since coming to power in 2014... 24th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the risks in Turkey’s banking sector Turkey’s banks are generally in a good position to cope with sharp falls in the lira: they have large capital buffers to deal with a rise in non-performing loans, off-balance sheet instruments to... 22nd November 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan not losing control of money market Media reports that suggest that the Bank of Japan is losing control of short-term interest rates due to its “Special Deposit Facility” encouraging banks to park reserves at the BoJ are wide of the... 22nd November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Outbreak quashed, land auction rules eased Local authorities in China appear to be becoming more adept at bringing Covid outbreaks under control with relatively little disruption to economic activity. Meanwhile, this week’s easing of land... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Home sales on the cusp of a rebound New home sales have dropped by a fifth since March, a similar-sized slump to those seen during the previous two housing downturns. With policy now turning more supportive, high-frequency data suggest... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pockets of vulnerability in MENA banking sectors Most banking sectors in the region (with the notable exception of Lebanon) have, so far, come through the COVID-19 crisis in relatively good shape. But with support programmes now being withdrawn... 18th November 2021 · 6 mins read
