US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 431,000 rise in non-farm payrolls is another sign that the real economy has plenty of momentum, though with those gains now being helped by a stronger rebound in the labour force, there are signs... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack Waiting for action Efforts to stabilise China’s financial markets have been a short term success. Although in aggregate March was one of the worst months on record for portfolio outflows from onshore markets, there were... 31st March 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone unemployment rate edged down yet again in February, to a record low of 6.8%. There is little sign yet that this is feeding through to higher wages. But labour market conditions are set... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ’s Yield Curve Control under threat We expect Japan’s economic output to return to its pre-virus path by the end of the year. With the recovery from the pandemic complete, we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.7% this year to just 1.0% in... 30th March 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Labour Market (Feb. 2022) Employment was unchanged in February after January’s sizeable fall. But with all domestic restrictions since lifted and activity resuming its recovery, employment is set for a strong rebound over the... 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook becomes more nuanced Less than a week after the Fed raised interest rates by 25bp at its policy meeting and issued projections showing that it intended to hike rates at each of the remaining six meetings this year, Chair... 25th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Support measures won’t prevent inflation reaching 2% The government is preparing fresh support measures to lower prices of petroleum products, which will reduce the drag on household incomes and will prevent inflation from breaching 2% for now. We still... 25th March 2022 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth set for gradual slowdown We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 450,000 in March, marking the beginning of a gradual slowdown. The report should also provide further evidence that wage pressures are starting to ease. 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic impact of Ukrainian refugees on CEE The potential for around 3 million refugees to settle in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by the middle of this year will present a large fiscal cost, but will also boost the size of the labour force... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Inflation to fall sharply in H2 While the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil mean energy prices will remain elevated and push headline inflation above 8% in March, it will still fall sharply later this year. Energy... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Market-implied policy tightening could topple housing The surge in interest rate expectations is a key risk to housing. We recently set out how, due to the much larger share of variable rate mortgages than before the pandemic, the Bank of Canada would... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack War in Ukraine to drag on EM GDP growth The war in Ukraine will have several economic repercussions for the emerging world. We have lowered our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 1%-pt, to 3.2%. Russia aside, the biggest downward... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tightening would require wage growth of at least 2% Governor Kuroda admitted last week that inflation could hit the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in April but stressed that “that in no way signifies there will be a revision of our current monetary policy”... 21st March 2022 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Migration revival won’t let RBA off the hook Migration is rebounding much faster after the border reopening than we had anticipated. While that will slow the decline in the unemployment rate, the labour market is already historically tight and... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q4) The latest data show that euro-zone wage growth remained subdued at the end of last year, despite reports of widespread labour shortages. The tightening in the labour market that we expect is likely... 18th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb. 2022) The further decline in the Australian unemployment rate takes the labour market closer to full employment, setting the RBA up to hike rates in June. 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
