Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) Retail sales rose by a bit more than we anticipated in May, but the preliminary estimate implies that most of the gain in sales volumes was reversed in June and the slump in consumer confidence... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession threat broadens The outlook for the world economy has darkened again and we have reduced our forecasts for all major economies, leaving them further below the consensus of economists. We now anticipate recessions in... 21st July 2022 · 49 mins read
US Chart Pack Economic growth to remain muted in H2 The incoming activity data now show clearer signs of weakness, particularly in the most interest-rate sensitive components of spending. But there are still few signs of that moderation morphing into a... 21st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack RBA to hike rates more sharply than most anticipate The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that the Bank debated a smaller 25bp rate hike but ended up hiking rates by 50bp. Those minutes also included a discussion of the level of the neutral... 21st July 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We expect a renewed rise in Gilt yields before long The release of strong UK labour market and inflation figures this week, coupled with the growing likelihood that the next Conservative Party leader will loosen fiscal policy, strengthen our conviction... 20th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increased risk of recession The Bank’s aggressive policy tightening will weigh heavily on domestic demand, with consumption growth set to slow sharply while residential investment plunges back to pre-pandemic levels. There is... 20th July 2022 · 20 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation... 20th July 2022 · 34 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to avoid recession narrowly We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger... 19th July 2022 · 23 mins read
UK Economics Labour Market (May/Jun.) The strong rise in the supply of workers in May helped to take some of the heat out of the labour market. Even so, the sharp increase in employment and pick-up in wage growth supports our view that... 19th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Earnings expectations, the Fed and the S&P 500 Optimistic expectations for US corporate earnings over the next couple of years, coupled with a still-hawkish Fed, mean we think the S&P 500 will stay under pressure for a while. 18th July 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Soaring inflation to trigger a recession A rise in CPI inflation from the 40-year high of 9.1% in May to a peak of 12% or higher in October will reduce real incomes by enough to mean that a recession now seems inevitable. Our forecast that... 18th July 2022 · 27 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will reduce pressure on Yield Curve Control Supply shortages and continued virus caution will result in a weaker recovery in Japan than most anticipate. With wage growth sluggish too, the Bank of Japan won’t see a need to lift its policy rates... 18th July 2022 · 18 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese equities still face many headwinds We think that several data releases and events over the past week or so lend some support to our view that China’s stock markets will continue to struggle. 15th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will deliver 75bp rate hike next month With consumer spending resilient, the labour market tightening far faster than anyone had anticipated and inflation set to surge further in Q2, we now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver a... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The euro-zone looks on course to fall into a mild recession in the coming quarters. Real incomes are falling, business sentiment has plummeted and growth in the region’s export markets is slowing... 14th July 2022 · 29 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2022) The sharp fall in the unemployment rate in June is consistent with our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than most anticipate. 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
