Japan Economics Weekly Strength in business investment won’t be sustained We’re revising up our estimate of Q3 business investment as capital goods shipments surged and firms plan to spend the most on research and development in years. However, with a global manufacturing... 4th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA will continue to tighten well into 2023 The RBA didn’t respond to the upside surprise in Q3 inflation with a renewed 50bp hike this week as some had anticipated. But by revising up its inflation forecasts and sounding increasingly concerned... 4th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (September) The fall in the euro-zone unemployment rate to 6.6% in September shows that the labour market remained very tight even as the economy headed towards recession. We expect unemployment to rise in the... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Sep.) Employment continues to trend higher across the 30 metros, but nearly half remain short of pre-pandemic peaks, including all six major metros. Indeed, with job growth slowing, we don't expect... 2nd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Q3 2022) New Zealand’s labour market remained very tight last quarter and coupled with the continued strength in inflation. the RBNZ will probably hike by 75bp in a couple of weeks. 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data indicate wage growth will drop back The job openings and quit rates were little changed in September, but the downward trends over the past six months point to an easing of labour market conditions which will weigh more heavily on wage... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Bibi comes back in Israel? Wage pressures in CEE Israelis vote in elections next week and while polls point to a possible return for Benjamin Netanyahu (aka Bibi) as PM, another inconclusive result remains highly likely. The election has limited... 28th October 2022 · 10 mins read
US Rapid Response US Income & Spending (Sep.), Employment Cost Index (Q3) 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Tokyo CPI (Sep. 22) The unemployment rate rose slightly in September on the back of a large jump in the labour force but a continued rise in the job-to-applicant ratio suggests that the labour market will tighten again... 28th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains take another step down We are pencilling in a further step down in non-farm payroll growth to 225,000 in October and we expect that payrolls will be falling outright by early 2023. 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Is wage growth still accelerating? The outperformance of wage growth for those moving jobs is not a signal that overall wage growth is set to accelerate. The decline in job quits and in the share of firms planning pay rises suggests... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish labour data point to further rate hikes Data for Sweden show that the labour market remained tight in September. Together with the recent strong inflation numbers this suggests that there are upside risks to our forecast that the Riskbank’s... 21st October 2022 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan economy now in fourth place, but not for long With the yen reaching a 14-year low against the euro, we estimate that Germany's GDP has overtaken Japan's in US$-terms. However, as the yen is now more severely undervalued relative to fundamentals... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
