US Employment Report Preview Millions of job losses coming The March employment report is more or less irrelevant at this stage because we already know that millions of workers have been laid off since the survey was conducted earlier this month. For what it... 26th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German IAB Labour Market Barometer (Mar.) While the fall in the IAB Labour Market Barometer in March points to a modest increase in German unemployment in Q2, the fact that the survey largely pre-dates the ramp-up in containment measures... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update New macro forecasts – Q2 GDP to fall at 40% pace With the number of COVID-19 cases in the US skyrocketing and a rising share of the population under lockdown, we need to revise our macro forecasts quite significantly: We now expect second-quarter... 25th March 2020 · 4 mins read
GDP to plunge as unemployment soars The complete shutdown of large parts of the economy suggests that GDP will plunge by 35% annualised in the second quarter and that the unemployment rate will climb to near 15% in the coming months. 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Unemployment rate to rise by less than in the GFC The enormous fall in GDP that we have pencilled in for Q2 as a result of the economic effects of the coronavirus implies that the unemployment rate will spike over the next few months and that incomes... 24th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Jobless rate to erase seven years of gains We think the unemployment rate in the euro-zone will surge to about 12% by the end of June, giving up seven years’ worth of gains in a matter of months. Much of this may prove temporary if the economy... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus and Yes Bank debacle dash hopes of recovery It has been a dreadful few weeks for India’s economy. This started with the release of GDP data showing that growth in Q4 slowed to its weakest pace since 2013. And hopes of a near-term recovery have... 19th March 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Feb.) Today’s data show that the coronavirus did not have a significant impact on the Australian domestic economy in February. Even so, we think the draconian restrictions put in place will result in... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Coronavirus derailing the economy Surveys and timely data from late-February onwards show that the economy is in the midst of a deep downturn. Cinema sales, restaurant reservations and the Economy Watchers Survey all point towards... 18th March 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The strong rate of employment growth at the start of the year is a rare bit of good news for the economy at the minute. But this growth will give way to a plunge in employment in the coming months. 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The plunge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in February to its lowest level since the 2011 tsunami suggests that the intensified spread of the coronavirus will cause consumer spending to fall... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & International Trade (Jan.) The 30,000 rise in employment in February is encouraging, but the real test will come in the next few months as the effects of the coronavirus outbreak are felt. Despite the strong labour market, the... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 273,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February confirms that the US economy was in very good shape before the coronavirus hit. Nevertheless, with the 10-year Treasury yield slumping to a new record... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) The sharp rise in wage growth in January was down to yet another sampling distortion. A more accurate measure showed that wage growth softened and we expect labour earnings to continue to disappoint... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s fall in inflation reflected the decline in energy prices as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. But if the virus starts to sap domestic demand, then core inflation may decline slightly in... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
