UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The rise in regular pay growth to a fresh post-crisis high and weak productivity growth suggests that we are right to think that rates will rise further than is priced into markets next year if a... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Central banks getting more confident Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand displayed a little more confidence in their optimistic forecasts when they left interest rates unchanged this week. We think that... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q3 growth hit by temporary drop in car production The slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth to just 0.2% in Q3 came as a major disappointment, but there are good reasons to expect the economic expansion to regain a little pace in the quarters... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q3) The dramatic fall in the unemployment rate to 3.9% in the third quarter should encourage the Reserve Bank and suggests that they may raise rates earlier than we had anticipated. However, we still... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: soft labour market temporary, rates to rise further The recent uptick in Chilean unemployment has prompted some analysts to suggest that interest rates may not rise much further. But the central bank doesn’t seem too concerned and we think that any... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy starts Q4 with a whimper rather than a bang The large fall in the PMIs in October suggests that the economy slowed sharply at the start of Q4. Admittedly, some slowdown from rolling three-month GDP growth of 0.7% in July and August always... 5th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Int. Trade (Sep.) October’s further decline in wage growth is a worrying signal for policymakers, with real wage growth stagnating just as the Bank takes a more hawkish approach to normalising policy. 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) & International Trade (Sep.) The 250,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October, following a more modest 118,000 gain in September, confirms that Hurricane Florence temporarily depressed employment in September. The BLS suggests... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Immigration door opens a little further The new types of work visas Japan’s government plans to introduce in April will probably result in an even greater inflow of foreign workers over the coming years. That’s a step in the right direction... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Crisis in Sri Lanka is bad news for the economy The current political crisis in Sri Lanka, which has seen the country’s president, Maithripala Sirisena, replace Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, comes at a... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional slowdown to continue Growth in most of Emerging Europe will continue to slow over the next couple of years, and by more than most expect. The slowdown is set to be sharpest in Turkey, where the recent currency crisis will... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) October’s increase in euro-zone inflation supports the ECB’s judgement that underlying price pressures are gradually building despite the slowdown in activity over recent months. 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in a generation and we think it will fall further over the coming year. But wage growth probably won’t reach the rates required to meet the BoJ’s 2%... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Hurricanes may mask the strength of payrolls We estimate that non-farm payroll gains rebounded to 185,000 in October, but this may be skewed by the uncertain impacts of Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Michael. The bigger picture is that... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shadow bank concerns come to the fore India’s shadow banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past few weeks, triggered by news that the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS) Group is likely to miss several... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Stronger investment intentions bode well, for now The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey revealed a rebound in firms’ investment intentions, which is consistent with machinery and equipment investment growth remaining close to 10% y/y. Moreover... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
