UK Economics Budget Preview – Restraint now, largesse later Despite the improving outlook for the public finances, the rumours that the Chancellor will set himself some fairly stringent fiscal rules suggest that there’s not going to be a net giveaway in the... 21st October 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) September’s public finances figures mean that the Chancellor will be able to boast in next Wednesday’s Budget that he has reduced government borrowing much quicker than expected. But we suspect he’ll... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus A fresh look at Brazil’s public debt problem Suggestions that Brazil’s government will raise welfare spending – and circumvent the spending cap in doing so – add to the evidence that there’s little appetite for the long-term fiscal squeeze... 20th October 2021 · 14 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Supply shortages limiting economic growth We now expect GDP growth to be 4.8% in 2021, rather than 5.0%, and 3.5% in 2022, down from 4.0%. Worsening labour shortages imply that spare capacity has been rapidly absorbed and point to a sharp... 20th October 2021 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Interest rates and inflation to remain low Growth in China will weaken further over the coming year as a downturn deepens in industry and construction. The outlook for the rest of the region is improving. We expect many economies to rebound... 20th October 2021 · 35 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Well placed to navigate choppy waters As highly-open economies, Switzerland and the Nordics are far from immune to the issues of slowing global growth and supply-chain shortages that are currently vexing investors. Sweden is perhaps most... 20th October 2021 · 13 mins read
India Chart Pack RBI in no hurry to withdraw policy support The latest activity data suggest that India's recovery has entered a slower phase, with global supply shortages starting to weigh on the economy too. In addition, India’s vaccination coverage remains... 20th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Running into troubled waters Supply chain problems will slow the recovery and keep inflation above target until around the middle of next year. Beyond that, however, the economy should get back on track. After regaining its pre... 19th October 2021 · 31 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Best of the recovery now over Easing virus outbreaks and the lifting of restrictions boosted recoveries across Latin America in Q3, but growth looks set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. The re-opening boost will soon fade... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Domestic headwinds fading While parts of Japan’s manufacturing sector remain under severe pressure from global supply chain shortages, domestic headwinds to the recovery have dissipated further in recent weeks. That supports... 19th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to outperform Economic recoveries in the Gulf will continue to gather pace over the coming year on the back of successful vaccine rollouts and higher oil output, and our GDP growth forecasts lie above the consensus... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
UK Economics A taste of stagflation The UK economy is experiencing a taste of stagflation. This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s. But for the next six months, the worsening product and labour shortages... 19th October 2021 · 27 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Supply shortages take their toll The supply shortages that have affected many DMs have also intensified in emerging economies over the past couple of months. The automotive sector has been hit hard by global semiconductor shortages... 18th October 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economic Outlook Whiff of stagflation gets stronger The whiff of stagflation is getting stronger as shortages worsen, leading to surging prices and weaker real GDP growth. Shortages of goods and intermediate inputs will eventually ease, although not... 18th October 2021 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rising inflationary pressures to prompt tightening Domestic demand is set to rebound from recent lockdowns and labour markets should remain tight. Meanwhile, soaring energy and food prices will keep inflation high for a prolonged period. To be sure... 14th October 2021 · 25 mins read
