Japan Economics Update What to do about persistent corporate surpluses? A higher corporate tax would reduce corporate sector surpluses and could stimulate demand if the additional revenue were used to finance higher public spending or transfers to households. But the tax... 17th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Banking troubles won’t stop ECB hiking to 4% We think that the recent stress in the banking sector has had little impact on the outlook for monetary policy in the euro-zone. While there were significant outflows of bank deposits in the five... 11th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Outlook beyond Q1 bleak, more Italy energy support The latest survey and activity data suggest that, after stagnating in Q4, euro-zone GDP returned to growth in the first quarter. But a recession in the remainder of 2023 still seems likely to us... 6th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ cuts and the Gulf, Saudi labour, Morocco-IMF The surprise voluntary oil output cut by OPEC+ will directly shave 1-2%-pts off GDP growth in the region’s members this year, which has prompted us to revise down our 2023 GDP growth forecasts. That... 6th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook First to hike, first to cut Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally... 4th April 2023 · 27 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The OPEC+ oil cuts and what they mean for MENA The surprise announcement of a further 1.66mn bpd cut to oil output by OPEC+ will reduce GDP growth mechanically in the Gulf economies by around 1-2%-pts this year, although the corresponding rise in... 3rd April 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Temporary factors support strong start to the year The strength of GDP growth at the start of the year reflected several temporary factors. The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, released next week, will provide a better guide to how firms and... 31st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Domestic woes to drag down growth Homegrown problems in Sub-Saharan African economies exacerbated by external headwinds are likely to curtail growth this year. We think that regional GDP will expand by 2.3%, which is well below the... 31st March 2023 · 24 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s hawks, Ecuador’s political crisis The new fiscal rule proposed by Brazil's Finance Ministry yesterday might have eased the central bank's fiscal concerns somewhat, but we doubt it will bring forward the timing of interest rate cuts... 31st March 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s new fiscal plans: yet to convince The new fiscal rule proposed today by Brazil’s finance minister would, if implemented in full, go some way towards stabilising the public debt ratio. But the government has a lot to do convince... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Water strains, Saudi-China relations, CBE meeting Tunisia and Morocco are in the midst of severe droughts that could weigh on activity in the key agricultural and tourism sectors, and could possibly stoke social unrest. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia... 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA set for a much weaker 2023 Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, in 2023. IMF deals will help to contain balance of payments strains in the non-Gulf economies but... 30th March 2023 · 25 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Full effects of high interest rates yet to be felt The economy made a strong start to 2023, but we continue to expect a moderate recession this year as high interest rates feed through and the banking issues in the US weigh on exports. The downturn... 29th March 2023 · 21 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government drops its fiscal anchor The 2023 Budget projects a much larger deficit than the prior Fall Economic Statement and, as a result, the government now agrees with our forecast that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise. Roughly half... 28th March 2023 · 3 mins read
