Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2022 We think that GDP growth in Australia will surprise to the upside. But with wage growth only approaching the 3% watermark the RBA would like to see by year-end, we expect the Bank to keep rates on... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA experience offering Omicron hope? Nigeria’s budget Evidence is growing that South Africa’s Omicron-driven virus outbreak has been brief and not as economically damaging as previous waves. This is a promising omen for other economies in Sub-Saharan... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Gulf tightens restrictions, Egypt budget This week’s OPEC+ meeting turned into a fairly straightforward affair with the group raising output as planned, but if we’re right in expecting oil prices to drop back, the window for governments in... 6th January 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Key calls for 2022 As long as recurrent large waves of COVID are avoided, we think that Indian GDP growth will accelerate this year. At the same time, inflation is likely to rise more sharply than generally expected... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Restrictions to weigh on first-quarter GDP growth The economy gained momentum at the start of the fourth quarter and we have revised up our forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 5.5% annualised, from 4.0%. Given the rapidly deteriorating... 23rd December 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long The Omicron has lifted new virus cases to a record high, though hospitalisations remain low. We estimate that there are around 2000 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients in New South Wales... 23rd December 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing rebound should continue into 2022 Q4 is shaping up to be strong in line with our forecast. Mobility data point to another sizeable rebound in consumer spending, and strong export data and optimistic firm forecasts suggest that... 22nd December 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Chart Pack What Omicron means for monetary policy in Asia Most countries in Emerging Asia have now recorded cases of Omicron, and the experience from elsewhere in the world suggests that it is only a matter of time before there is widespread community... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack The People’s Bank is not pleased The People’s Bank purchased nearly $6bn in foreign exchange last month, by our estimate. That’s not much in the context of China’s cross-border trade and investment flows. But it was the biggest... 22nd December 2021 · 12 mins read
US Chart Pack Winter virus wave to slow economic momentum The Omicron variant has supercharged the seasonal wave of virus cases sweeping parts of the US, adding to the existing headwinds to consumption growth over the coming months. In contrast to... 21st December 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s FX-indexed deposit scheme A new scheme announced by Turkey’s President Erdogan last night, which compensates holders of lira deposits for exchange rates losses, has triggered a sharp rally in the lira and will help to mitigate... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Nov.) The rise in government borrowing in November suggests the public finances could be already starting to feel the strain from higher spending on NHS Test & Trace and booster vaccines. Now that tighter... 21st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in... 20th December 2021 · 15 mins read
India Chart Pack Inflation risks stacked on the upside in 2022 Upside inflation risks are building in India. Damage to crops from bad weather has caused spikes in vegetable prices recently. And base effects aren’t helpful: food inflation will accelerate in year... 20th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
