Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update Biden plan points to limited further fiscal expansion The $1.8trn in spending and tax credits in the American Families Plan would provide a relatively small boost to GDP growth as, like the earlier infrastructure proposals, it would be mostly paid for... 28th April 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economic Outlook Rebound levelling off After treading water in Q1, activity should pick up again this quarter following the relaxation of domestic travel restrictions. But growth will be more modest than most expect over the next couple of... 28th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Diverging policy responses to rising inflation Inflation is above target in Brazil and Mexico, with Chile set to follow in the coming months, but only in the former is the central bank likely to respond with (further) interest rate hikes. Brazil’s... 27th April 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way in unbalanced recovery A strong vaccine rollout in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE and Bahrain, and Morocco should mean that containment measures are eased soon, paving the way for sustained economic recoveries. But the... 27th April 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Putin’s fiscal gift, lira fall, Polish inflation, Israel launch President Putin’s state of the nation address this week outlined more social welfare measures ahead of elections in September, but the implications for growth and inflation will be limited. Meanwhile... 23rd April 2021 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government sets out stimulus worth 4.4% of GDP The additional stimulus outlined in today’s Budget was in line with our expectations and, while a few of the proposals will raise eyebrows, the total package should help to support a strong economic... 19th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Continued policy divergence likely to support the US dollar Although the US Treasury’s biannual report on the “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners” refrained from explicitly naming any country a “currency manipulator”, it... 19th April 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Investors reassess state support Investors had previously shrugged off governance problems at Huarong, China’s largest distressed debt manager. The assumption had always been that the firm’s ties to the Ministry of Finance would... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Tighter monetary policy on the horizon The speed of the vaccination rollout has been disappointing and brief, localised lockdowns have set back the recovery in both countries. But vaccine supply should improve over the coming months which... 15th April 2021 · 16 mins read
US Economic Outlook Policy stimulus to drive strong recovery The combined strength of fiscal and monetary stimulus and the early success of the vaccination program means that we expect GDP growth to be 6.5% this year and 4.0% in 2022. We would be surprised if... 14th April 2021 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: looser fiscal policy in store, but no splurge The resilience of tax receipts and the improved outlook for oil and gas revenues should provide scope for Russia’s government to soften its grip on the public finances and ease policy over the next... 13th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Biden’s tax reforms: further fuel for the rotation trade? If enacted, President Joe Biden’s corporate tax reforms could become a significant drag on US equities and hit the earnings of technology, pharmaceuticals and biotech companies particularly hard... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly The long, winding road to an infrastructure deal The news that a new interpretation of Senate rules would allow Democrats to pass a second reconciliation bill this fiscal year has the potential to be a gamechanger, but we expect moderate Senate... 9th April 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccinations and policy stimulus to drive recovery The third wave of COVID-19 means that the restrictions on activity will be in place for longer than we assumed, but the economy is poised to recover strongly once vaccinations reach a critical mass... 8th April 2021 · 19 mins read
