US Economics Weekly Fed to hike by 75bp despite weak GDP growth Fed officials may have briefly contemplated an even bigger hike following the news of the further surge in inflation in June but, with inflation expectations dropping back and the incoming news on... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession threat broadens The outlook for the world economy has darkened again and we have reduced our forecasts for all major economies, leaving them further below the consensus of economists. We now anticipate recessions in... 21st July 2022 · 49 mins read
India Chart Pack Demographics to remain an important growth driver The latest population projections released by the UN this month show that India will overtake China as the world’s most populous nation in 2023 (see Chart 1), a touch earlier than previously expected... 21st July 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil fuelling a gulf in growth The spillovers from the war in Ukraine are driving a divergence in the region’s outlook. Higher oil output and looser policy will drive above-consensus GDP growth in the Gulf this year and next... 21st July 2022 · 25 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes and recessions loom large The near-term economic outlook has deteriorated in recent months and Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark are set for mild recessions in late 2022 and early 2023. This is partly a function of external... 21st July 2022 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures provided more evidence that the government’s fiscal position is worse than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted back in March. This may limit the ability... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack RBA to hike rates more sharply than most anticipate The minutes of the RBA’s July meeting showed that the Bank debated a smaller 25bp rate hike but ended up hiking rates by 50bp. Those minutes also included a discussion of the level of the neutral... 21st July 2022 · 11 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increased risk of recession The Bank’s aggressive policy tightening will weigh heavily on domestic demand, with consumption growth set to slow sharply while residential investment plunges back to pre-pandemic levels. There is... 20th July 2022 · 20 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Tightening cycles to be short lived as headwinds grow Further interest rate hikes are likely across the region in the near term, and we have raised some of our year-end forecasts to reflect growing concern among the region’s policymakers about inflation... 20th July 2022 · 34 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy to avoid recession narrowly We expect the economy to avoid a recession only narrowly, as higher interest rates trigger a contraction in residential investment and weakness in consumption growth. Core inflation has been stronger... 19th July 2022 · 23 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Soaring inflation to trigger a recession A rise in CPI inflation from the 40-year high of 9.1% in May to a peak of 12% or higher in October will reduce real incomes by enough to mean that a recession now seems inevitable. Our forecast that... 18th July 2022 · 27 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will reduce pressure on Yield Curve Control Supply shortages and continued virus caution will result in a weaker recovery in Japan than most anticipate. With wage growth sluggish too, the Bank of Japan won’t see a need to lift its policy rates... 18th July 2022 · 18 mins read
UK Economics The policies of the 5 wanting to be in Number 10 Even though the two candidates that are leading the race to be the next Prime Minister have pledged to loosen fiscal policy by less than the other candidates, whoever takes over as Prime Minister on 6... 15th July 2022 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Prospect of smaller budget deficits adds to BoJ’s woes With tax revenues soaring and pandemic-related expenditure set to be phased out, the budget deficit will shrink sharply over coming years. However, the resulting decline in bond issuance will make it... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession won’t stop aggressive ECB tightening The euro-zone looks on course to fall into a mild recession in the coming quarters. Real incomes are falling, business sentiment has plummeted and growth in the region’s export markets is slowing... 14th July 2022 · 29 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Product shortages ease as activity weakens Recent data suggest that global economic activity was even weaker than we initially thought in Q2, with GDP probably contracting in several major economies including the euro-zone, UK and China. The... 13th July 2022 · 13 mins read
