Capital Daily EUR/USD: To parity and beyond? While the euro’s rapid fall over the past couple of weeks means that a lot of bad news about the euro-zone economy now appears to be discounted, the trends driving the common currency lower may... 12th July 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Focus Is a recession coming soon? We think that the economy is well-placed to handle higher interest rates and anticipate a period of weak economic growth rather than an outright recession: Rate-sensitive spending is a relatively... 11th July 2022 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil price falls, Saudi & UAE fiscal loosening, PMIs Oil prices have fallen over the past month as global recession fears have mounted but, while they are likely to decline further over the coming years, they will remain high by past standards. This... 7th July 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economic Outlook More frontloading to come Strong economic growth and surging inflation have prompted the RBI to kick-start its hiking cycle and we think the central bank will continue to frontload policy tightening. In all, we think the repo... 7th July 2022 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Housing downturn raises recession risks With inflation rising even further than we had anticipated, both the RBNZ and the RBA will slam harder on the brakes than most anticipate. We expect policy rates to peak around 3.5% in both countries... 7th July 2022 · 25 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures remain intense The latest data suggest that underlying inflationary pressures in the euro-zone remain intense. Although core inflation edged down from 3.8% in May to 3.7% in June, this appeared to be down to... 6th July 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ocampo, BanRep hawks & Argentina in crisis (again) Colombian President-elect Gustavo Petro’s choice of José Antonio Ocampo as his finance minister provides an early sign that Petro will govern as an economic moderate. Mr Ocampo will also sit on the... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in confidence not enough to rule out aggressive rate hikes Signs that business confidence has started to ease may provide the Monetary Policy Committee with some reassurance that firms' pricing power will soon soften. But the danger that bigger increases in... 1st July 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly GST hikes add to inflation concerns The Finance Ministry’s announcement this week of hikes to GST rates doesn’t signify a tighter fiscal stance, but it does add to the upside risks to inflation. This reinforces our belief that the RBI... 1st July 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hawkish shift creates difficult environment for Africa The hawkish turn by DM central banks over the past month has further soured investor risk appetite, and capital inflows into African economies are likely to have slowed. Countries with large external... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Tightening cycles still have some way to go Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence... 29th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Tight labour market pushing up wages The tight labour market is putting upward pressure on wages, with the Labour Force Survey showing a strong 1.0% m/m rise in average hourly earnings in May. While the annual rate of wage growth, at 3.9... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack High inflation fuels strikes and protests High inflation seems to be causing growing unrest in the region, which threatens to be economically disruptive and raise fiscal concerns. Recent protests in Ecuador have hit its oil sector hard, while... 28th June 2022 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack Domestic weakness frees up ports for exports The Omicron virus wave in China appears to have eased global shipping bottlenecks rather than worsened them as many had feared. Firms were able to re-route shipments through other ports to avoid... 28th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Thai economy to receive tourism boost After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level... 27th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Region’s financial markets routed Risk-off sentiment and the sell-off in EM financial markets have hit the Middle East and North Africa hard. Having been the top regional performer earlier in the year, the MSCI Arabian Markets Index... 24th June 2022 · 13 mins read
