Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone debt dynamics: no longer core vs periphery Most euro-zone governments look set to continue running large budget deficits in the coming years. This will support aggregate demand and is a key reason why ECB interest rates will stay higher than... 14th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Focus A European defence revolution? Europe’s economy will receive a modest boost from the German-led rise in defence spending over the next couple of years. The bigger question is whether it is the start of a move towards creating a... 13th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Is the current optimism about Europe justified? There has been an increase in optimism about the EU in recent months as it has been forced to take more responsibility for its own security, has loosened fiscal policy and has benefited from having a... 12th May 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal election to lead to policy continuation Next week’s election in Portugal is likely to have little impact on the country’s economic prospects, not least because it looks like it will be a repeat of last year’s election results. Regardless of... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SSA fiscal slippage, SA reforms, Ghana inflation Leaders across Sub-Saharan Africa faced with fiscal strains are embracing tax reform rather than rises to maintain fiscal consolidation efforts, but we doubt that this will be sufficient to prevent... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania on the rocks after election re-run The strong showing for far-right nationalist, George Simion, in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled Presidential election on Sunday has deepened the country’s political crisis, and the fallout in... 9th May 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Lower oil prices, Banxico on track for another 50bp cut The downward revision to our oil price forecast is likely to exacerbate public finance risks in some of the region's major oil producers, notably Colombia and Ecuador. But other countries, especially... 9th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would it take for Saudi to do a U-turn on oil policy? Saudi Arabia has shifted back towards an oil policy of aggressively raising oil output to recapture market share and the Kingdom’s strong balance sheet means that it can “live with a prolonged period... 8th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (1st Round) Far-right candidate George Simion emerged as the clear frontrunner in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled presidential election and is now the favourite to win the second round on 18 th May. His... 5th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Federal Election The Australian Labor party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, is cruising towards victory in yesterday’s federal election. Given that our forecasts assumed policy continuity, we are inclined to... 4th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa 2025 Budget 3.0, Angola IMF loan? This week’s announcement that South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month sets the scene for a few more weeks of talks over spending restraint versus tax rises. We... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Burning through fiscal ammunition Fiscal loosening wasn't enough to prevent a slowdown in China's growth last quarter. And while deficit spending appears likely to ramp up further this quarter, the current budget leaves officials with... 2nd May 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney should find support for stimulus despite minority Although Mark Carney’s Liberal Party just missed out on a majority in the election this week, the conciliatory tones from the Bloc Québécois suggest that the government should find the support needed... 2nd May 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil policy shift, Vision 2030 progress Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia may be preparing for a return to an oil policy in which it raises output more quickly in order to recapture market share. While that might lift oil revenues, it won't... 1st May 2025 · 6 mins read
