Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Abdalla stays on as rate decision looms, PIF Annual Report Hassan Abdalla’s term as Egypt’s central bank governor was renewed this week which bodes well for the ongoing shift to macro orthodoxy and broader structural reform. First up on his agenda will be... 21st August 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Jul. 2025) July’s undershoot in government borrowing continued the decent start to the fiscal year and leaves borrowing broadly in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s 2025/26 fiscal year forecast of... 21st August 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Don’t blame the public sector for Australia's productivity malaise Even though direct government spending now accounts for the largest share of GDP on record, we aren’t convinced that this explains the prolonged weakness in productivity growth. 21st August 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Could UK property tax reforms boost the economy? The Chancellor is reportedly considering replacing stamp duty land tax and council tax with alternative property taxes in the Autumn Budget. Even if this was revenue-neutral, it could be more... 19th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We now expect growth to average 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year, before slowing slightly in 2026. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to... 19th August 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update India’s GST reforms are an encouraging step Reported simplifications to India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) would, all else equal, result in a slightly larger fiscal deficit this year and next, as well as provide some policy-induced support to... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa unemployment, Kenya’s fiscal challenges The rise in South Africa’s unemployment rate in Q2 reinforces our view that inflation will stay subdued, further interest rate cuts are coming and local currency bond yields will continue to decline... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Consumer loan subsidies are a step in the right direction The new consumer loan subsidy programme announced by the Ministry of Finance this week is unlikely to significantly drive up household spending. But may be a sign that China's leadership is finally... 15th August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: All eyes on Trump-Putin meeting, a Diwali GST gift The meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska later today could pave the way to a reduction in India's US tariff rate. Meanwhile, PM Modi struck a defiant tone regarding the tariff threat... 15th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ will welcome resilience of Japan’s economy While faster productivity growth makes it easier for firms to absorb stronger wage growth, the Bank of Japan will welcome the resilience of consumer spending and business investment since Liberation... 15th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Can Bolivia’s next president solve the macro mess? Bolivians head to the polls on 17 th August with the economy at high risk of a currency crisis. Whatever the outcome, a large currency depreciation is looking likely before long. A win for one of the... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus “Euro safe assets” are a pipe dream Policymakers’ hopes of creating a new euro “safe asset” are likely to be unfulfilled for many years to come. The supply of safe bonds issued by national governments and EU institutions will rise in... 12th August 2025 · 14 mins read
China Economics Update China’s deflation problem isn’t going away Hopes that recent data show China starting to emerge from deflation are likely to be disappointed. The recovery in core goods inflation last month mostly reflects the impact of government subsidies... 11th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi’s austere turn, CBE Monetary Policy Report takeaways Q2 budget figures show that Saudi Arabia's deficit is on track to be larger than the full-year projections set out in the Budget. Officials are turning to fiscal consolidation (via cuts to capital... 7th August 2025 · 8 mins read
