UK Data Response Public Finances & CBI Industrial Trends (Dec./Jan.) December’s public finances figures will do little to ease the pressure for a major fiscal tightening after the general election. But at least the manufacturing sector finally seems to be benefiting... 21st January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: IMF loan back on track, but growth to disappoint Romania’s parliament last night agreed a series of cuts to this year’s budget that should get its IMF-led loan programme back on track. Nonetheless, the economic recovery is still likely to disappoint... 15th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is Portugal the next Greece? Recent suggestions that Portugal may be “the next Greece” overlook the fact that Portugal’s economic and fiscal position is fundamentally healthier. Still, this month’s budget may need to reveal... 12th January 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: is an IMF deal imminent? Recent quotes from leading policymakers suggesting that Turkey is in advanced talks with the IMF should be taken with a pinch of salt, particularly as negotiations have already dragged on for over a... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How much will fiscal tightening hurt Europe? Greeces troubles have highlighted the need for decisive fiscal consolidation in at least parts of the euro-zone. This need not be as aggressive as in the UK or US, but could still knock over 0.5% off... 7th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek Government unlikely to meet its tougher fiscal plans The Greek Government’s pledge to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2012 appears to be encouraging news for markets. But the scale of the adjustment required suggests that the Government will... 6th January 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal worries won't fade soon Growing concerns over the UK’s fiscal position are unlikely to ease this side of the general election and could well intensify further. But the prospect of a long period of very low inflation and... 5th January 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland not out of the woods just yet With the Irish economy expanding again and the Government apparently willing to take the tough actions required to get the public finances on an even keel, Ireland looks set to avoid coming under the... 17th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2009 - Still waiting for the axe to fall Consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the looming tax rises and government spending cuts. The worst year of the fiscal squeeze looks likely to be 2011, when we think that it could knock some 2.5%... 9th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Pre-Budget Report 2009 In macro-economic and fiscal terms, this PBR was a complete non-event. It did nothing to support the economy in the near term, and nothing to restore the public finances to health further ahead. A... 9th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pre-Budget Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Pre-Budget Report speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 9th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Pre-Budget Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Pre-Budget Report speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 9th December 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal stimulus small but perfectly formed The government’s scope for manoeuvre on fiscal policy is obviously limited given Japan’s huge public debt, but the additional stimulus announced today was probably the best that could be expected. 8th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How will consumers fare in the fiscal squeeze? Consumers are likely to bear the brunt of the looming tax rises and government spending cuts. The worst year of the fiscal squeeze looks likely to be 2011, when we think that it could knock some 2.5%... 2nd December 2009 · 1 min read
