Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF deal a tentative step in the right direction for Ukraine The financial markets’ luke warm endorsement of Ukraine’s new IMF deal is probably justified. While a new IMF programme is good news in theory, in practice its success will depend on whether or not it... 5th July 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Output, Spending, Labour (May) & SME Conf. (Jun.) The third successive monthly increase in the unemployment rate will add to concerns that the recovery in domestic demand is too fragile to offset any slowdown in exports as a result of weakening... 29th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal worries eased, but not eliminated Last week’s tougher than expected Budget has helped to ease market concerns about the UK’s fiscal outlook, but it won’t eliminate them altogether. For a start, the vast bulk of the planned fiscal... 28th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Constitutional Court deals blow to Romania’s fiscal cutbacks This morning’s ruling by the Romanian Constitutional Court against planned cuts to state pensions deals a blow to the government’s austerity programme. While much remains uncertain, it seems unlikely... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Are the euro-zone austerity measures working? Recent data on the public finances suggest that the euro-zone peripheral governments are broadly on track to meet their ambitious fiscal targets for 2010. But these governments still face an enormous... 25th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Emergency Budget 2010: Tough but tender This was a Budget with two faces. The total discretionary tightening will build up to 8% of GDP per annum by 2015-16, larger than Canada’s in the 1990s, but smaller than Sweden’s and Finland’s. 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Emergency Budget 2010: Tough but tender The new coalition Government has made an industrious start. But it still faces some major policy challenges if it is to achieve the multiple goals of sorting out the public finances, improving... 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget squeeze on household finances to weigh on house prices Fears that a rise in capital gains tax would rapidly destabilise the fragile house price recovery appear to have been overdone. But the scale of the fiscal squeeze announced by the Chancellor today... 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Budget squeeze on household finances to weigh on house prices Fears that a rise in capital gains tax would rapidly destabilise the fragile house price recovery appear to have been overdone. But the scale of the fiscal squeeze announced by the Chancellor today... 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Budget Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 22nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Government’s growth strategy fails to impress In our view the government’s mid to long-term growth strategy and fiscal plan is a triumph of spin over substance. Nonetheless, the markets appear willing to give the new administration the benefit of... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The Budget squeeze will hurt Last week’s interim forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) sprung something of a surprise in revealing a lower projected path for public borrowing over the next five years than that... 21st June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) May’s public finance figures continued the recent run of slightly better than expected news on the fiscal position. But the big picture is still that a major fiscal squeeze looms, with tough measures... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian reforms a small step in the right direction In a speech to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum this morning, President Medvedev unveiled a series of market-friendly reforms including changes to the capital gains tax regime and a... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) May’s public finance figures continued the recent run of slightly better than expected news on the fiscal position. But the big picture is still that a major fiscal squeeze looms, with tough measures... 18th June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What if the emergency Budget raises VAT? There is clearly a strong chance that Tuesday’s emergency Budget contains a rise in VAT. While this might make the MPC’s job a bit trickier, we doubt that it would push the Committee into raising... 17th June 2010 · 1 min read
