UK Economics Update "Plan B" is to bank on the MPC The apparent lack of a “plan B” for the public finances should the economy be weaker than the Government expects supports our forecasts of sluggish growth and further monetary loosening. 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is it time to worry about fiscal discipline in Turkey? The Turkish bond market has shrugged off the news that a much vaunted fiscal rule will not now be implemented until 2012 at the earliest. This may be justified since, on its own, a rules based... 26th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Jul.) Not only did the latest UK data suggest that the fiscal position is tentatively improving, but it looks like the slowdown emerging in the wider economy has not spread to the high street yet. 19th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek fiscal squeeze taking its toll on the economy Recent news has confirmed that the Greek central government is meeting its ambitious deficit reduction goals, adding to evidence that it will receive its second tranche of euro-zone and IMF funds in... 12th August 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Political turmoil unlikely to threaten Italy's public finances Since Italy has already put in place measures to reduce its budget deficit over the next couple of years, the current political uncertainties do not pose a major risk to the near-term outlook for the... 9th August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Can the UK survive the squeeze? (Q3 2010) The fiscal contraction is now well and truly underway. However, we doubt that the conditions are in place for the economy to take such a sharp squeeze in its stride. 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s impossible trinity China is seeking to rein in bank lending and hold to a conservative fiscal stance while maintaining rapid economic growth. It cannot do all three. 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines’ fiscal position is poor but not disastrous Bad news on the budget deficit has trickled through in recent weeks and there is scepticism about the Philippine government’s ability to limit the shortfall to its new (upwardly-revised) target for... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: IMF reforms to come at a cost In stark contrast to recent developments in Hungary, the fiscal cutbacks announced by the Romanian government have so far helped to keep its IMF-led loan deal alive. But these will come at a cost. We... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Hungary go it alone? Hungary can probably survive without a new IMF/EU programme for the remainder of this year. But we suspect it will eventually be forced to re-engage with the Fund either later this year or early in... 23rd July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal squeeze to slam the brakes on consumer spending We expect the fiscal tightening to leave real household disposable incomes falling by 1% next year and stagnating in 2012 the tightest squeeze since the mid-1970s. As a result, we no longer expect... 21st July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures put something a dent in recent hopes that the fiscal position is now on a clearly improving path. 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: IMF deal breaks down This weekend’s breakdown in talks between the Hungarian government and the IMF rounds off a dire start for the new Fidesz government. While Hungary can get by without IMF funds for now, Hungarian... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Policy challenges for the new Government The new coalition Government has made an industrious start. But it still faces some major policy challenges if it is to achieve the multiple goals of sorting out the public finances, improving... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Policy challenges for the new UK Government The new coalition Government has made an industrious start. But it still faces some major policy challenges if it is to achieve the multiple goals of sorting out the public finances, improving... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece still heavily reliant on its bailout facility On the face of it, today’s Greek treasury bill auction, the first since April’s bailout package was activated, provides some reassurance that markets’ confidence may be gradually returning. But Greece... 13th July 2010 · 1 min read
