Emerging Europe Economics Update What to look for from Hungary's spending cuts The Hungarian government is due to begin debating a “structural revamp” of the public finances in the coming weeks, which will entail substantial budget cuts. A first reading of the Growth and... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much should we fear a consumption tax hike? In a parliamentary debate today Prime Minister Kan hinted that the government does not intend to raise Japan’s consumption tax until after the next Lower House elections, which are not scheduled to... 2nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rising inflation unnerves the ECB The further rise in euro-zone CPI inflation at the start of 2011 will have done little to ease the ECB’s fears that price pressures in the region are building. Nonetheless, inflation remains far lower... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook continues to deteriorate The latest Federal budget projections from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office underline the terrible state of the public finances. This year's deficit is now expected to reach $1,480bn, or 9... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Three ways the fiscal crisis could play out The potential market implications of a fiscal crisis may not be as clear cut as some assume, particularly for JGBs, but it is hard to see any outcome that does not involve some further weakness both... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) Most of the peripheral euro-zone economies appear to have made some inroads into their large budget deficits last year, with Spain taking the lead. 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Preliminary GDP (Q4) & Public Finances (Dec.) Although heavily affected by the weather, the UK’s shockingly bad Q4 GDP figures - showing a 0.5% quarterly contraction - raise serious concerns over whether the economy is in a strong enough position... 25th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary hikes again, but all eyes back on fiscal policy The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) this afternoon voted to hike interest rates by 25bps for the third consecutive month (to 6.00%). The outlook remains highly uncertain, but on balance today’s move... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Faltering recovery adds to fiscal challenges The appointment of Kaoru Yosano as Minister for the Economy and Fiscal Policy has revived discussion of the case for a hike in the consumption tax, but no decision is likely until mid-year at the... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tombini starts with a hike, attention now turns to fiscal policy Last night, the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 50bps to 11.25%. Rates will probably be increased by another 50bps at March’s meeting too. But if rumours of a fiscal tightening... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tighter fiscal policy is still the key for Brazil Contrary to claims by some commentators, we think that tighter fiscal policy has a key role to play in ensuring that Brazil meets its current inflation/inflows challenge. Indeed, we would go as far to... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) November’s UK public finances figures confirmed that the recent stronger performance of the economy has so far had little positive impact on the dire fiscal position. 21st December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly European policymakers still doing the bare minimum The news that EU leaders reached agreement last week on the treaty changes required to establish a “permanent crisis mechanism” in 2013 is unlikely to ease pressures in the peripheral bond markets... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How far will the fiscal stimulus boost growth? The recent run of stronger economic data has prompted us to raise our fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast to 4% annualised, from 2.5%. Based on the higher starting point for GDP going into next year... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Two elephants leave no room for more fiscal stimulus The corporation tax cuts agreed by the Cabinet today and the supplementary budget passed at the end of November are simply tinkering at the margin. The mountain of public debt and looming demographic... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a prolonged fiscal tightening The half-yearly Economic and Fiscal Update published overnight in New Zealand makes it clear that the May Budget will be a tough affair even though 2011 will be an election year. It is essential that... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
