UK Economics Focus Budget 2011 Preview The Budget on March 23rd will probably include some minor measures to ease concerns over the economy and sky-high oil prices. But the Coalition Government is not likely to signal any significant... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the "Euro Pact" mean for Portugal? Contrary to prior expectations, Portugal was not pushed into accepting a bail-out at this weekend’s euro-zone summit. Instead, the “Euro Pact” and Portugal’s announcement of new fiscal measures eased... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the "Grand Bargain" prove to be a turning point? Measures announced by European leaders late last Friday to try to resolve the region’s fiscal problems have provided the markets with a boost. But the measures are not as far-reaching as had been... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt limit spat has unleashed QE3 by stealth One of the unintentional side effects of the current impasse in Congress over raising the debt ceiling is that it has led to a significant expansion of the monetary base. Indeed, the drop in the... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Political hurdles threaten grand plan Expectations for the EU summit to discuss the latest policy proposals to tackle the euro-zone debt crisis have fallen so far that the scope for disappointment in the near term may be limited... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Earthquake increases chances of fiscal crisis The consequences of the major earthquake and tsunami that hit Miyagi Prefecture and other areas in north-eastern Japan today are not yet clear and the impact on local people is of course foremost in... 11th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China committed to rebalancing? Much of the talk at the National People’s Congress is of the need to boost domestic demand. But with the finance ministry projecting an even smaller budget deficit for 2011 than 2010, the government’s... 7th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) Most of the peripheral euro-zone governments made some progress towards getting their public finances under control in 2010. But those economies are set for another painful squeeze this year and... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can European policymakers rise to the challenge? Well over a year into the euro-zone debt crisis, policymakers still face enormous challenges if they are to prevent the region’s problems from continuing to escalate. On current evidence, it is far... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's fiscal reforms: impressive rhetoric but short on detail The long-awaited ‘structural revamp’ of the public finances that was unveiled by Hungary’s government earlier today was big on rhetoric but short on detail. The bottom line is that the government’s... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's budget targets look hard to achieve The Indian budget, passed today, aims to bring the deficit down to 4.6% of GDP in 2011/12. We judge that this will be difficult to achieve, primarily because the planned expenditure reduction looks... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Budget fight could get nasty The growing spat surrounding the possibility of a Federal government shutdown and the debate over raising the debt ceiling could turn out to be nothing more than old-fashioned political theatre, with... 28th February 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Saudi Arabia's latest stimulus be enough? Saudi Arabia’s latest fiscal boost is important but not the only reason why the country is unlikely to face civil unrest soon. In fact, much of the $36 billion announced yesterday was already part of... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) January’s public finance figures provided reassurance that the Government is on track to meet this year’s borrowing forecasts. However, we continue to think that the slowing recovery will mean that... 22nd February 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore's upswing will stay in good shape Singapore announces its latest budget on Thursday, and we anticipate that the key measures will include supports for low-income groups to cope with higher food and fuel prices. In addition, the budget... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's cuts look big but off-balance sheet spending still key Last night’s announcement of budget cuts worth R$50bn (1.3% of GDP) should mean that Brazil’s government meets – or perhaps even betters – its ‘official’ target for the primary budget surplus of 3% of... 10th February 2011 · 1 min read
