Europe Economics Update The beginning of the end for the euro? The continued failure of European policymakers to agree on a new package to support Greece and the growing signs that larger economies like Spain and Italy are being dragged further into the crisis... 13th July 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How big a worry is the suspension of US aid for Pakistan? The US government announced on Sunday that it has suspended $800m in military aid to Pakistan amid a further deterioration in the relationship between the two countries. The announcement is clearly a... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling impasse drags on The impasse over raising the debt limit continued last week, although it looks like the two sides are edging closer to a deal ahead of the 2nd August deadline set by the Treasury. If there's no deal... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A reality check for Portugal Last week’s move by credit rating agency Moody’s to cut Portugal’s rating to below investment grade was a stark reminder that default concerns are not confined to Greece. While the move was fiercely... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Why do countries default and what are the consequences? History suggests that in many cases a sovereign default ultimately proves to be a good thing for the country concerned, as it can set the stage for economic recovery. This is more likely to be the... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Hidden costs could hinder Portugal’s fiscal efforts The Portuguese government’s latest efforts to implement extra fiscal measures to ensure it meets its budget deficit target are encouraging. But even if the Government manages to push through the huge... 1st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) While plans for a Greek debt roll-over and a second bail-out should ease immediate default concerns and funding pressures, Greece is still struggling to rein in its budget deficit, highlighting the... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek disaster averted, for now at least The fact that the Greek parliament has passed the Government’s medium-term fiscal plan clearly reduces the chances of a near-term disaster, but the country remains in a precarious position. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank roll-over plan a small step forward for Greece The French plan for banks to roll over a significant chunk of their maturing Greek government debt could significantly reduce Greece’s near-term funding pressures. But we doubt that the roll-over plan... 29th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sagging tax receipts put cracks in Plan A Last week’s public finances figures for May brought the clearest signs yet that the weakness of the economy is starting to hinder the Government’s fiscal consolidation efforts. 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) & CBI Ind. Trends (Jun.) May’s public finances figures brought the clearest signs yet that the weakness of the economy is having an adverse effect on the public finances. 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly New budget, same old problems The submission to the Diet of a second supplementary budget in early July is not expected to have a large impact. The macroeconomic effects of the additional budget are likely to be small, and it is... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly End of QE2 won't drive Treasury yields higher With the end of QE2 approaching, it is notable that in the first quarter the Fed absorbed all of the net issuance of Treasury debt and then some. Nevertheless, we still believe it is the stock of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Between a rock and a hard place The Chancellor is stuck between the proverbial rock and hard place. Yes, the fiscal squeeze is stifling the recovery. But abandoning the consolidation would not guarantee that growth prospects would... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Oman's additional spending boost growth? Oman has recently announced significant additional government spending over the previous commitments made in April, which is likely to have an impact on economic growth in the near term. Nonetheless... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Plan B worries underline low interest rate outlook The ongoing concerns over the lack of a “Plan B”, should the economy be weaker than the Government’s fiscal plans assume, underline the need for interest rates to stay low for a long time yet. 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
