Europe Economics Update Can the new rescue package solve Greece’s problems? The new details on the second rescue package for Greece that have emerged over the past week or so have not altered our view that Greece’s outstanding debt burden remains unsustainably high. A second... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) It is becoming increasingly clear that some of the peripheral economies will struggle to meet their budget deficit targets this year. And the new Greek package, like its predecessors, is unlikely to... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Downgrade, default or both? Even if the politicians finally get their act together and agree a deficit reduction package, the resulting spending cuts may not be large enough to appease the credit rating agencies. As such, we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Default seemingly averted, but downgrade almost certain The latest noises from Washington suggest that politicians are close to reaching a compromise on a deal that will raise the debt ceiling ahead of Tuesday night, thereby preventing a debt default and a... 1st August 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Essential points on the US debt crisis The US debt crisis will clearly dominate the agenda in the coming week, so it is worth summarising and expanding on the points we have made so far. In short, we continue to think that the Federal... 30th July 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What is the impact of Saudi Arabia’s aid to Jordan? Saudi Arabia’s additional $1 billion in aid to Jordan will help to avert a short-term fiscal crisis in the resource-poor country. But we are more concerned that this aid will lead to government... 27th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Back from the brink, for now The positive market reaction to the Greek rescue package is not without some justification. After all, following the dithering and disagreement of recent months, it would not have been a shock if... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What if the US loses its AAA rating? A downgrade of US government debt would not necessarily be disastrous for Treasuries or the dollar, at least once the dust settled. However, it would be the starkest warning yet that the fall-out from... 23rd July 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Euro-crisis: How big is the contagion threat? The prevailing view that Emerging Europe should be able to avoid contagion from the escalating crisis in the euro-zone could prove to be dangerously complacent. At the very least, strong trade ties... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Plenty of deficit reduction plans, but still no agreement An agreement to raise the debt ceiling still appears to be some way off, but not for lack of trying. Every day seems to bring a new deficit reduction plan. With the clock ticking, we doubt there is... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greece needs much more than a bank levy News that a bank levy may be used to help fund Greece’s second rescue package suggests that eurozone policymakers are more concerned about appeasing taxpayers than adopting bold and decisive measures... 21st July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Last chance saloon for euro-zone policymakers? This week’s crucial summit could provide the last chance for euro-zone policymakers to get a grip on the region’s debt crisis. Anything other than a very decisive response which could be applied not... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Does the Government need a Plan B? The Government is unlikely to switch to a Plan B incorporating a markedly slower pace of fiscal consolidation unless the economy is very weak or even in recession. Accordingly, the outlook under Plans... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How a banking crisis could sink the euro A loss of confidence in the banking system of a euro member country could potentially result in all of that country’s bank liabilities effectively ending up as the liabilities of the ECB. The sheer... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How exposed is the US to European debt defaults? The risk that the US government will default on some of its debt obligations lingered last week as the stand-off over the raising of the debt ceiling appeared to intensify. At the same time, it has... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s troubles raise risk of euro-zone break-up The growing recognition that highly indebted economies need more than temporary loans has caused the spotlight to turn on Italy. With EU taxpayers unlikely to stump up enough cash to rescue such a... 14th July 2011 · 1 min read
