UK Economics Weekly The Chancellor’s straitjacket could get tighter We doubt when he created his fiscal framework that the Chancellor ever imagined quite what a straitjacket he was creating for himself. At a time when he is under pressure to slow down his austerity... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FSR highlights growing risk of credit crunch The Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) suggests that a second credit crunch might already be starting to hit the UK. A renewed tightening of credit conditions is just one reason to... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) The latest fiscal data suggest that Ireland remains on track to meet its budget deficit target for this year. But the near-term outlook for the public finances in Southern Europe is more downbeat. 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the UAE's stimulus Following similar moves in other Gulf countries, the UAE announced an increase of up to 100% in the pay of some public sector workers, as well as the introduction of a $2.7 billion fund to help low... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian economy slows, but worse is yet to come GDP figures released today confirm that India’s economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of this year, even before the latest drop in business surveys and exports. With tight monetary policy... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2011 The dominant themes of this Statement come not from the Chancellor but from the OBR. It now paints a pretty gloomy picture of the immediate economic outlook. Even so, we think its forecasts are not... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Chancellor’s hands are tied The ailing economy desperately needs more support and yet the Chancellor is more hemmed in than ever by the fiscal position. With no money to spend, Mr Osborne will instead use the Autumn Statement to... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How bad is Vietnam’s fiscal position? Vietnam’s fiscal position has deteriorated in recent years. Debt levels would be even higher if contingent liabilities of the banking sector and state-owned enterprises are included. The biggest risk... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Hungary's move back to the IMF News that Hungary will commence talks with the IMF on a “new type of cooperation” is clearly a positive step following the turmoil seen in local markets over the past couple of weeks. The forint has... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the new Spanish Government steady the ship? Although Spain is in a rather better position than its Southern European counterparts, the next Government still faces huge challenges and is unlikely to overcome them without outside help. 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia's new oil tax: radical reform or damp squib? The relative stagnation in Russian oil production over the past few years has long been a concern for policymakers. However, it seems unlikely that the new, more favourable, tax regime for Russian oil... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy needs more than a new government The departure of Silvio Berlusconi may have prompted hopes that Italy has come back from the brink, but we still think that a new government is unlikely to prevent an eventual default. 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What are the implications of Argentina's subsidy cuts? Initial measures aimed at reducing Argentina’s growing subsidy bill are too small to make a meaningful difference to the public finances. Nevertheless, the commitment to review the entire subsidy... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fussing over federal finances is misplaced We agree that the federal government will take longer than previously thought to return to budgetary balance but, really, so what? Considering that the primary federal budget is already balanced and... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the G20 achieve anything in Cannes? The G20 leaders’ summit this week will be an exercise in damage limitation. The agenda has been completely over-taken by the euro crisis, where there is no agreement on the role non-euro-zone... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) Further signs that some of the region’s most troubled economies are struggling to meet their budget deficit goals, coupled with growing evidence that the euro-zone is entering a new recession... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
