Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakian election puts fiscal policy under the spotlight Victory for the left-wing populist Smer party in Slovakia’s parliamentary election this weekend is likely to cause alarm that the commitment to austerity is fraying. While it is undoubtedly necessary... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012 Preview The Chancellor’s resolve to stick to his austerity plans appears to be as strong as ever. We expect another fiscally neutral Budget, with flagship measures such as another rise in the personal tax... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Questions over credibility of China’s budget China’s budget planners have a history of wildly underestimating revenue growth, usually making actual net spending by the government far less supportive to the economy than originally planned. The... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Policymakers in wait-and-see mode The trend in Asia has been towards loosening policy recently. However, signs of stronger global growth and the pick-up in oil prices are likely to persuade central banks across the region to keep... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How much will the auto-subsidy boost GDP? The reintroduction of a government subsidy on fuel-efficient vehicles propelled a big increase in retail spending and industrial production in January. The subsidy should provide some support to auto... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will stubborn inflation scupper recovery hopes? Recent euro-zone price developments suggest that inflation will remain stubbornly high over the coming months and damage previous hopes that sharp falls in inflation would partly offset the negative... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How much will fiscal austerity constrain the recovery? Governments in most advanced economies have been tightening fiscal policy since 2010 and will continue to do so this year. Our best guess is that growth in 2012 will consequently be around 0.5... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of Putin's pledges We estimate that, if fully implemented, the various pledges made by PM Putin over the past couple of months would cause government spending to rise by Rb4.8trn by 2018 (equivalent to 4-5% of GDP)... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Brazil's budget cuts Despite cutting some R$55bn in spending from its 2012 budget, Brazil’s government may still fall short of its fiscal target for this year. That would not necessarily be a disaster from the point of... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crunch year for the euro-zone? While the news on the euro-zone economy has improved a bit in the last month or two, 2012 could still turn out to be crunch year for the currency union. Fiscal progress in the peripheral economies has... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Taxation plans in the Gulf are good news, but will take time Given that public finances are vulnerable to swings in oil prices, rumours that Qatar and other Gulf countries are considering Value-Added Tax (VAT) to diversify revenue sources are welcome. Indeed... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) The latest fiscal data suggest that most of the southern European economies are still struggling to make further major inroads into their budget deficits. With growth likely to weaken further in the... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec.) The latest fiscal data add to evidence that the ongoing austerity programmes in Southern Europe have failed to narrow these economies’ budget deficits as quickly as expected. 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Another GBP18bn of fiscal tightening due in 2012 France is spearheading a drive to push ahead with a “Tobin tax” on financial transactions in Europe, even though the UK has ruled out taking part. If a comprehensive tax were introduced, the potential... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Dec.) & Public finances (Nov.) The minutes of December’s MPC meeting reiterated the Committee’s view that there is little point in trying to fine-tune policy, but nonetheless suggested that the door remains open to more... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian prospects remain grim Recent euro-zone developments may have brought Italy back from the brink again. But Italy will still need years of financial assistance from the rest of the region and to go through years of severe... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
