Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growing risk of fiscal crises in the oil-poor Arab countries One of the most striking – and often overlooked – developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) following the Arab Spring has been the stark divergence in the fiscal health of the region’s... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s fiscal woes an obstacle to EU-IMF deal Fresh concerns about the Hungarian government’s willingness to accept the conditions for help from the EU and IMF have led to renewed tensions in its financial markets. Attention has focused on... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fiscal austerity will dampen GDP growth this year Fiscal austerity measures across various levels of government will dampen economic growth this year. While the federal government's 2012 budget will have a relatively minor impact, the fiscal... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bigger firewall is a small step forward The reported plans to increase the size of the euro-zone bail-out fund - hopefully to be agreed at today’s (Friday’s) Eurogroup meeting - provide some encouragement that the policymakers have... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia - losing its shine? Indonesia’s stock market and currency have been among the worst performing assets in Asia so far this year. The poor performance reflects worries over proposed cuts to fuel subsidies, which will... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Raising the consumption tax: a small step forward The government has finally succeeded in submitting a bill to parliament to increase the consumption tax. This is has been a long time coming and is an important step forward in putting the public... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Budget austerity will constrain economic growth Despite an already modest deficit, the new federal budget includes plans to forge ahead with austerity measures that are likely to restrain economic growth. We doubt that the economy will perform as... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Mar.) Recent news from Spain suggests that the Government may be falling further behind its fiscal targets, but the other troubled euro-zone governments have made a better start to the year. 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: from sweet spot to tough spot? The Russian economy is in a sweet spot for now: inflation is at record lows and growth is strong. But we doubt that this will last. Indeed, the authorities are likely to find themselves in an awkward... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the external sector rescue the recovery? There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit crunch has passed in US but not in the euro-zone Credit growth and lending conditions are improving gradually in the US but are still extremely weak in the euro-zone. This divergence looks likely to continue or widen in the coming months... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is government spending falling? Recent claims that, despite the fiscal squeeze, government spending is still rising in real terms have revived the debate about whether the spending plans are actually as tough as they look. But while... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Better export growth will help bolster GDP growth We expect GDP growth to slow after the first quarter, as consumption growth fades and housing investment begins to decline. Only a pick-up in business investment growth and a positive contribution... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2012: Not rocking the boat This was a neutral, steady-as-she-goes budget, with few implications for the macro-economy. From his speech, the Chancellor came across as wanting to be radical, but the measures failed to live up to... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update 2012 Budget - Stamp Duty takes centre stage again The new higher rate of stamp duty for £2m-plus properties, as well as a clampdown on avoidance schemes, is likely to dampen activity at the top end of the London housing market. But we doubt that the... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India takes modest steps to correct budget deficit The Indian budget for 2012/13, presented to parliament today, incorporates some significant tax hikes and should be viewed positively by the markets and the central bank. The main concern, though, is... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
