Europe Economics Update Will Italy need a bail-out too? Italy may have recently avoided the spotlight thanks to developments in Greece and Spain, but its dreadful debt dynamics mean that it remains a ticking time-bomb for the euro-zone. 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and the IMF revisited With attention fixed on every twist and turn in Hungary’s talks with the IMF, it’s easy to forget why the government first raised the prospect of assistance nine months ago. In short, while the fiscal... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Latest bazooka may lack ammunition Plans for the euro-zone bail-out fund to purchase sovereign debt look unlikely to have a lasting effect on governments’ borrowing costs unless accompanied by a significant increase in firepower. 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal challenges to remain beyond current squeeze The UK’s current deficit reduction plan offers to some the happy prospect of a smaller public sector in the future. But the fiscal consequences of the UK’s ageing population may frustrate such... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain moving quickly towards a sovereign bail-out The recent further rise in Spanish government bond yields underlines the fact that the banking bailout will not address the country’s broader fiscal problems. A sovereign bail-out is all but... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's crisis package underlines dependency on oil revenues The $40bn crisis package that press reports suggest is being prepared by the Russian government should allay fears of a repeat of 2008-09, when the Kremlin was accused of being behind the curve in the... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is fiscal stimulus on the way in Asia? Our view that Asia is well-placed to withstand sluggish global growth and the crisis in the euro-zone is based on our belief that policymakers in the region have plenty of scope to cut interest rates... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Households snap up Treasuries Households appear to be making a concerted effort to hold safer assets. In fact, in the first quarter they bought more Treasuries than the Fed and overseas investors combined. Should foreign appetite... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Downturn spreading to the core The euro-zone may have narrowly avoided falling back into recession around the turn of the year, but timelier data have revealed that economic prospects are deteriorating. Activity surveys, such as... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What might a bail-out for Spain look like? Events are moving fast in Spain. After denials from Spanish government officials in recent months about the need for a bail-out, external assistance now seems inevitable with EU officials reported to... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update A fiscal ‘free lunch’? The debate around fiscal policy has tended to become polarised between advocates of austerity, who argue that any relaxation of deficit reduction would bring down the wrath of markets, and opponents... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) Recent fiscal data suggest that Greece and Spain will struggle to meet their existing budget deficit forecasts for 2012 without implementing further austerity measures. But for now at least, the... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers have little room for manoeuvre This week’s dismal first quarter GDP data will sharpen the debate over whether policymakers in Emerging Europe should pursue austerity or focus on growth. But in reality, while there is scope for one... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What will a euro-zone break-up involve? Our view that the euro-zone needs to break up has become more widely accepted, but many commentators still argue that, in practical terms, it simply can’t happen. In this Focus, we outline the... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery looks to be on firmer ground The US recovery looks to be on firmer ground, despite the mounting crisis in the euro-zone. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2013. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia on course for a budget surplus in 2012-13 Australia’s government retained its target of returning to a small budget surplus in 2012-13 in today’s federal budget. Solid economic growth and public spending restraint should help the government... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
