Asia Economics Weekly The Philippines – on course for investment grade status The Philippines looks increasingly likely to be awarded investment grade status sometime in the next couple of years. A major improvement in the country’s fiscal position and much better macro... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s talks with IMF/EU won’t be plain sailing The passage of Hungary’s new Central Bank Act has lifted the last obstacle to the start of negotiations with the IMF and European Union. But this is merely the beginning. Numerous issues will need to... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French Budget scotches growth lobby François Hollande’s supplementary budget is in stark contrast to his vow to favour growth over austerity. With market pressures and a weakening economic outlook forcing even France to pursue budget... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation outlook improves The near-term inflation outlook has improved significantly in recent weeks. Inflation has fallen below 3% for the first time since the end of 2009. It will come under further downward pressure from... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Inflation outlook improves further If core inflation falls as we expect, it now looks like inflation could get as low as 0.5% or so in the early part of next year. 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of Russian inflation We estimate that planned hikes in Russian utility tariffs next month and again in September will add a total of around 2.0%-pts to headline inflation, pushing it to 6.5% by the end of the year. The... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Strong retail spending flattered by auto subsidy Better-than-expected retail sales figures disguise signs of weakness in underlying consumer demand. Sales are being propped up by the eco-car subsidy and are likely to fall sharply after the subsidy... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Are lower oil prices a blessing for Asia? The recent collapse in oil prices will help most Asian economies, with oil-intensive Thailand and India benefiting the most. The trouble though is that oil prices are falling because the global... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) The latest fiscal data provide further support to the view that recessions in the southern euro-zone economies are causing the governments there to fall behind their fiscal targets. 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would leaving the EU damage the UK economy? A referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU seems to be becoming a more realistic prospect. We think that concerns about the economic disruption if the UK were to leave are overdone. In fact, the... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What’s gone wrong in India? India’s economic troubles are mostly self-inflicted and result from policy paralysis and opposition to reforms. That is unlikely to change until the 2014 general elections at the earliest 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Consumption tax (finally) set to rise On Tuesday, the long-awaited increase in Japan’s consumption tax came a step closer as a bill to raise the tax passed Japan’s lower house of parliament. Although a step in the right direction to... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain: A €100bn bail-out ‘ceiling’ is not high enough The €100bn bail-out ‘ceiling’ for Spanish banks may provide a smaller ‘safety margin’ than the recent independent audits suggested and won’t address the country’s broader economic and fiscal problems... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (May) May’s public finance figures suggested that the double-dip recession is weighing on the public finances. 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bail-out talks are the next key hurdle for Greece The formation of a coalition Government headed by New Democracy has reduced the chances of Greece exiting the euro-zone imminently. But the political situation remains precarious and the Government’s... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers have space to support growth The authorities in most Latin American countries have space to loosen policy in the event of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. Indeed, we expect to see policy easing in most economies over... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
