Europe Economics Weekly Is this the real crunch time for Greece? Given the number of “crunch times”, “end-games” and “abysses” that Greece has faced over the last two years, it would be easy to dismiss the latest speculation that the tragedy is about to reach its... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rise in energy prices unlikely to prevent more stimulus The recent reversal of the 25% or so fall in oil prices earlier this year and the prospect of another round of utility price rises might now mean that CPI inflation struggles to fall below the 2%... 23rd August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Fiscal squeeze supposed to intensify next year The return to recession and the deterioration in the public finances have put the Chancellor in a tricky position, to put it mildly. His dilemma is made even worse by the fact that, on his current... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Downside risks abound Our baseline forecast for the US economy looks fairly benign, with GDP growth gradually picking up from 1.5% annualised in the second half of this year to 2.0% next year. However, we would stress that... 22nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Dragged down by weaker global economy The next 12 months are shaping up to be the most challenging since the 2008-09 global financial crisis for Latin America. A combination of weaker external demand, falling commodity prices and tighter... 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jul.) July’s public finance figures brought no end to the underlying deterioration in the fiscal position evident since the beginning of the financial year. 21st August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly GDP revision won’t change big picture Last week brought yet more evidence that the economy did not do quite as badly in the second quarter as the preliminary GDP figures showed. That said, we have said before that only a massive revision... 20th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don’t count on extra budget to revive the recovery The government has raised the prospect of introducing a supplementary budget before the end of the year. With the recovery unwinding and an election just around the corner, it is not hard to see why... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The tide could be turning in Egypt’s favour Reports that Christine Lagarde will visit Egypt next week and that the country may seek more funds from the IMF than had been initially thought are positive developments. This follows the news that... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil takes a (small) step in the right direction Measures unveiled by the Brazilian government this afternoon are good news insofar as they will help tackle some of the supply side problems that are holding the economy back. But any impact will be... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Action will need to follow words before long Two weeks after Mario Draghi’s pledge to do whatever it takes to save the euro, his words have still not been followed by actions. Indeed, an impasse appears to have ensued in which the major players... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus First thoughts on the Mexican election results The dust has yet to settle on the Mexican general election and so it is probably too soon to draw any firm conclusions as to what the outcome will mean for policymaking. That said, the early signs... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Pressure on Greece continues to grow The Greek Government’s inability to agree on how to cut public spending highlights the ongoing fragility of the situation there. And with euro-zone policymakers still unwilling to concede any ground... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EFSF/ECB support for Spain: some unanswered questions The ECB’s statement last week that it might buy Spanish bonds if the government first applies for EFSF support has left many questions unanswered, which we address in this Update. In short, it seems... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Local governments’ stimulus won’t fuel a sharp rebound Local governments across China have unveiled a series of stimulus plans, echoing the recent message from top authorities of the need to ensure strong growth. More stimulus plans are likely to follow... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul. 12) Recent fiscal data suggest that a large number of peripheral and core economies are struggling to make inroads into their budget deficits. And with the growth outlook continuing to deteriorate, many... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
