Africa Economics Update Nigeria likely to miss fiscal target for 2013 The 2013 budget proposal unveiled by President Goodluck Jonathan today is predicated on reasonableassumptions of economic growth and contains sensible measures to rebalance spending away fromsubsidies... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Government spending cuts - myth or reality? In our latest UK Quarterly Review, we look at the heated issue of the Government’s spending cuts. Are they responsible for killing off the economic recovery as some have claimed? Or are they the “bare... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bigger fiscal multipliers highlight case for rejigging cuts One of the most attention-grabbing aspects of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook is its new, bigger estimates of the impact of fiscal consolidations on economic growth. At the very least, this... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Hungary's austerity without growth isn’t working The raft of amendments to Hungary’s 2013 budget announced late last week contained not only fresh austerity measures, but also amended contentious policies that had previously been an obstacle to an... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the fiscal rules about to be broken? There is a significant chance that the OBR will judge that the Chancellor is on course to miss at least one of his fiscal rules when it revises its forecasts for the Autumn Statement. Rather than... 8th October 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt and the thorny issue of devaluation Egypt’s talks with the IMF over a financing package are set to get underway this month. There are a number of major stumbling blocks, the most contentious of which is whether Egypt is forced to... 5th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget marks a small step forward for Greece By announcing fiscal measures to generate the €13.5bn of savings demanded by the Troika, the Greek Government has moved a step closer to gaining the next loan instalment from its bail-out package. But... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's latest fiscal plan likely to be only partly adopted If implemented, the recommendations of the Kelkar Commission would put India’s public finances on a far more stable footing. However, the government is unlikely to be able to adopt them in full. 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico hedges its bets, again The Mexican government’s decision to hedge its oil revenues for next year will keep the fiscal position on a stable footing in the near-term. Nonetheless, a heavy reliance on oil revenues casts doubt... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Sep.) Further signs of fiscal slippage suggest that peripheral euro-zone governments will fall short of their ambitious budget deficit targets for this year. 26th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spain's waiting game is a risky one So far at least, the Spanish Government’s decision to delay seeking a bail-out does not seem to have backfired. After all, Spanish government bond yields remain low by recent standards. But the... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt deleveraging continues Despite the ongoing euro-zone crisis, the looming fiscal cliff and a drop back in the value of their financial assets, US households actually increased their debts in the second quarter by $74bn at an... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Aug. 12) August’s poor public finances figures have further increased the chances that the deficit will significantly exceed the level specified in the fiscal plans. 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: fiscal slippage won’t spook bond markets Financial markets are unlikely to be spooked by signs of fiscal slippage in Poland – compared with the rest of Europe, the government’s finances are a picture of health. In fact, we think bond yields... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: much depends on IMF deal as fiscal challenges mount The fact that the Egyptian government intends to increase public sector employment in the next fiscal year adds to our view that its fiscal deficit target for 2012/13 is too optimistic. We think that... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Further glimmers of hope Last week’s developments bolstered hopes that the euro-zone has finally reached a “turning point”. Indeed, given the further falls in peripheral government bond yields, some optimists even questioned... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
