US Economics Weekly Election going down to the wire Regardless of who wins the Presidential election, the chances of the victor having a compliant Congress appear to be fading fast. So even if Romney won, the most likely scenario is still that a deal... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the core softening its stance? Developments over the past week or so suggest that the core euro-zone governments’ attitudes towards the peripheral economies currently receiving bail-outs may be mellowing. But while this reduces the... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African bond markets shrug off deficit revisions The South African Finance Ministry today nudged up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit over the next three years, but we suspect that the budget shortfall may still surprise on the upside. The good... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Should we be worried about Argentina’s provincial debt? Fears that the ‘pesofication’ of foreign currency debt by one Argentine province earlier this month will lead to a wave of local government defaults are overdone. Even so, the provinces face a funding... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian government too optimistic on deficit reduction Earlier today we attended a meeting with Hungarian Minister of Economy, Zoltan Csefalvay. We left with the impression that the government’s plans for deficit reduction are still too optimistic and... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is a helicopter drop the answer? A so-called “helicopter drop” of money is generally seen as the nuclear option which will boost the economy if all else fails. However, it is not necessarily the radical step that it might seem. 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How would markets respond to a broken debt rule? There is a significant chance that the Office for Budget Responsibility judges in the Autumn Statement that the Chancellor is likely to miss his secondary target for debt as a share of GDP to be... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Sep.) September’s better than expected public finances figures will offer some cheer for the Chancellor. Nevertheless, it still looks like borrowing in 2012/13 will overshoot the OBR’s forecast. The dilemma... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Ukraine: walking a tightrope Ukraine’s large external financing requirement and its heavy dependency on industrial exports to Western Europe make it among the most vulnerable countries in Emerging Europe to a re-escalation of the... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Calls for secession are a blow to fiscal union hopes Calls for independence from the richest regions of Spain, Belgium and Italy threaten to blow big holes in the public finances of the three economies. And more fundamentally, growing public aversion to... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: fiscal monetisation to drive inflation higher There are some parallels between the money printing being undertaken by Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) and quantitative easing policies in the West. But in contrast to the developed economies... 18th October 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US economy developing split personality The US economy appears to be developing a split personality. Households, seemingly oblivious to the scheduled jump in marginal tax rates that will reduce their after-tax income next year, are... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mariodona will have to swerve soon The fall in government bond yields after the ECB announced its new bond-buying programme has prompted suggestions that the plan may not actually need to be activated. But it is only a matter of time... 17th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tax hikes won’t prevent inflation from falling The hikes in indirect taxes announced by the Turkish government over the past few weeks will not prevent inflation from falling further towards the end of this year. But even so, current account... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Budget doesn’t solve Portugal’s problems On the face of it, Portugal’s Budget for 2013 will enable it to meet the deficit targets set by the Troika and receive the rest of its bail-out funds. But public resistance to austerity and/or a sharp... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No end in sight for global austerity Whether or not you believe the IMF’s new estimates of the fiscal multiplier, budget cuts are due to intensify in advanced economies next year and will last longer than many had expected. 12th October 2012 · 1 min read
