Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: markets to sanguine on local government debt risk A restructuring of local government debt in Hungary is by no means certain and, even if it did occur, would entail smaller losses for the banking sector than a similar restructuring of private sector... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will Greece's extra financing needs be met? We suspect that policymakers may find a way to meet the estimated increase in Greece’s borrowing needs for the remainder of its bail-out deal without providing bigger loans. But if the economic... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Subsidy cuts likely to push Egypt inflation higher The latest data from Egypt paint a disappointing picture of weakening growth and rising inflation. And with subsidy cuts and tax hikes expected as conditions to any agreement with the IMF, headline... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Should shareholders be worried about the US fiscal cliff? We do not expect the result of the US elections to have a lasting impact on the stock market. Neither the tax hikes on investment income proposed by President Obama nor the tax cuts proposed by his... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would missing the debt rule lose the UK its AAA rating? The European Commission this week added to warnings that the Chancellor might miss his target for debt as a share of GDP to be falling in 2015/16. One factor influencing whether Mr Osborne decides... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: IMF deal closer, but devaluation still an issue Media reports suggesting that the Egyptian government could reach a deal with the IMF within the next few months is clearly good news. However, we have been here before and we suspect the issue of... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What's next for Greece? The passing of the omnibus bill by Parliament last night means that Greece has taken a decisive step towards gaining the next loan tranche of its latest bail-out. But although this has reduced the... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Obama re-election doesn’t alter bigger picture The re-election of President Obama removes one uncertainty that has been weighing on the markets over the last few months. But they are none the wiser about if, how and when Congress will deal with... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Child benefit cuts only part of accelerating fiscal squeeze About 1 million households are currently receiving a letter from HMRC setting out how much they will lose from child benefit reforms taking effect in January 2013. While the macroeconomic impact of... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External financing continues to trouble resource-poor countries Talks between Egypt and the IMF this month have focused attention back onto the external financing requirements of the region’s resource-poor economies. But so long as their oil-rich neighbours... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Businesses halt investment ahead of the fiscal cliff The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested that businesses are increasingly putting on hold investment decisions just in case Congress allows the fiscal cliff to hit. There is a growing... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Crunch time looms for Greece Over the next couple of crucial weeks, we suspect that Greek and euro-zone policymakers will hatch a deal to prevent, at least temporarily, the collapse of Greece’s rescue package. But as always... 1st November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: populist policymaking raises default risk A recent ruling by a US court has raised questions over whether Argentina will be pushed into a fresh debt default. On closer inspection, the issue remains one of willingness to pay rather than... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct. 12) The latest Spanish public finances data, which show that Spain is struggling to meet its budget deficit targets, will increase the pressure on the Government to request a bail-out. 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia budget plans: still banking on high oil prices Russia’s draft budget for 2013-15 implies that fiscal policy will become far more restrictive over the next three years. But it is doubtful that the government will be able to stick to its plans to... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan is fast approaching its own fiscal cliff The government is fast approaching a “fiscal cliff”. An extraordinary session of parliament is meeting from Monday (29th), in which the government will try to force the passage of deficit-covering... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
