Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf overheating fears fail to materialise The massive fiscal stimulus packages unveiled by Gulf economies in the wake of the Arab Spring raised fears at the time that they would lead to economic overheating and rising inflation. Fortunately... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Debt buyback won't transform Greece's fiscal outlook While early signs indicate that Greece’s debt buyback will be a success, it will not bring an end to the country’s fiscal crisis. 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More tinkering around the edges On Friday, Japan’s government announced another stimulus package, the second in just over a month. For Japan’s economy the package is more a prick of the finger than a shot in the arm and appears to... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek bail-out deal won't bring lasting calm Last week’s bail-out agreement has prompted some commentators to suggest that Greece’s future in the euro-zone should now be secure until at least next autumn. But we are not convinced. Indeed, given... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core should respond to a euro break-up Sharp appreciations in the euro-zone’s core countries would threaten to damage their exports and GDP in the event of a euro-zone break-up. But there are various policies that could be implemented to... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) Although Greece, Portugal and Ireland are making some fiscal progress, Italy and Spain are still struggling to cut their budget deficits 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek deal delays the day of reckoning Euro-zone policymakers have found a bit more money down the back of the sofa to buy another sticking plaster for Greece. But the relatively easy options are running out fast. 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Another Greek sticking plaster Euro-zone finance ministers are inching ever closer to a deal on the bail-out which will satisfy their own debt sustainability criteria and in the near term at least avoid a politically troublesome... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fiscal position still precarious October’s public finance data suggest that the fiscal position remains weak, with the main problem being on the receipts side. Along with rising inflation, downbeat business surveys and recent signs... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US court ruling calls Argentina's bluff on holdout debt Yesterday’s ruling by a US judge implies that if Argentina continues to play hardball on its holdout debt it will find itself in technical default within a matter of weeks. This may not be the... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could Cyprus be the first domino to fall? The news that Cyprus is about to run out of money has given a dangerous new angle to the euro-zone crisis. The economy is so small that a bail-out would be very cheap, but the Government will be... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2012 Preview The Chancellor remains hemmed in by the fiscal position. Indeed, he may well have to choose between introducing even more austerity in the Autumn Statement and letting at least one of his fiscal rules... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Oct.) & MPC Minutes (Nov.) October’s public finance figures – the last before the Autumn Statement in a fortnight’s time – suggested that there is still a significant risk that the Chancellor will break his fiscal rules unless... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Egypt's IMF programme News that Egypt’s government has reached a “staff-level” agreement with the IMF on a $4.8bn programme has greatly reduced the risk of a balance of payments crisis in the country. Radical policy... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary and the IMF one year on Tomorrow marks the first anniversary of the start of Hungary’s negotiations with the IMF. Unfortunately, we are no closer to a deal now than we were then. For the time being, the markets don’t appear... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What lies behind the IMF’s spat with the euro-zone? The public disagreement between the IMF and euro-zone reveals underlying tensions over whether core euro-zone governments will accept haircuts on their share of Greece’s public debt and concern among... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
