Latin America Economics Update Peru: tighter fiscal policy would help to rebalance economy Peru’s economy expanded by a healthy 5.9% y/y in Q4, however growth continues to be heavily dependent on domestic demand. In the current environment of improved global risk appetite, there is a risk... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India's budget: A test of policy credibility Following a year in which India’s growth weakened, external deficit widened, and sovereign ratings came under pressure, the upcoming budget will be a crucial test of the government’s policy... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public finances (Jan.) Stripping out the one-off factors affecting the numbers, January’s public finances figures revealed a modest improvement on last year’s outturn. But the big picture is still that the downward progress... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco: bright outlook, twin deficits pose downside risks Morocco is set to be the best performer among the resource-poor Arab economies this year, supported by a comparatively stable political and macroeconomic environment and a rebound in the agricultural... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Are the Government’s fiscal plans crumbling? Halfway through the parliament, the coalition’s fiscal plans are showing sizeable cracks. But any changes to the plans are likely to be modest, maintaining the need for strong monetary support. 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus The "two-speed" continent The scope for rapid “catch-up” growth, allied with improving levels of governance, point to a relatively upbeat outlook for most of sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade or so. By contrast, a lack... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Sequestration a secondary issue to budget talks The probability is rising that Congress won't act to prevent the sequestration spending cuts taking effect at the start of next month. On paper, that would reduce spending by $110bn per year... 14th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Sluggish Egyptian economy reduces prospect of IMF deal All eyes have focused on the fall of the Egyptian pound since the end of last year. But at the same time, the economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse. This suggests that job creation probably... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus State and local governments will partly offset Federal drag State and local governments have sorted out their finances to such an extent that they will soon be in a position to raise spending and, consequently, boost both GDP and job growth. This will offset... 12th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Political stability needed to get Egypt's debt onto a stable path Continued unrest has led to a worsening of Egypt’s fiscal position over the past year or so and we estimate that fiscal tightening of 3% of GDP is needed just to stabilise the debt ratio. However... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update More work needed to reduce budget deficit The latest projections from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office show that, despite recent efforts to control spending and boost revenues, the Federal budget deficit will remain close to 4% of... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Payroll tax hike to hit January incomes hard The expiry of the payroll tax cut will contribute to what could be a 3.5% m/m slump in personal disposable income in January. We expect any decline in real consumption to be pretty modest, however... 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 still points to big problems While the recent slight reduction in TARGET2 imbalances echoes other signs of improvement in the euro-zone, they still point to serious underlying problems in the economy and banking sector. 5th February 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Confidence will soon rise back after payroll tax hike hit Consumer confidence may be as much as 20 points lower than otherwise due to the effects of the payroll tax hike. But as long as employment continues to rise, gasoline prices don’t increase too much... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal credibility starting to unravel Hopes that yet more fiscal stimulus will transform the prospects for Japan’s economy, or at least make a meaningful difference to GDP in the next year or so, are overdone. The government’s credibility... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan. 13) The latest fiscal news from the periphery suggests that Greece, Ireland and Portugal met their fiscal goals for 2012 as a whole. 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
